Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for January 1

Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop

The sportsbooks are in a bit of a bind when it comes to Giannis Antetokounmpo today. What do you do when a player is averaging 51.7 points per game against a given opponent? That’s what Giannis has done over three games against the Indiana Pacers this year, tallying point totals of 54, 37 and 64.

The superstar’s production against the Pacers isn’t some noise or a few outlier games. The Pacers cannot defend the rim against bigs who can drive. On a per-game basis, Indiana allows the most points in the paint (61.7), the most made field goals in the restricted area (21.2) and the most points per game to power forwards (29.1).

It’s not like the Pacers have made any improvements to their frontcourt defense since the last time they saw Giannis. Since that game, they have allowed a 40-burger to Karl-Anthony Towns, 34 to Paolo Banchero and 30 to Alperen Sengün.

The Pacers have other problems, of course. In their last game, Donte DiVincenzo scored a whopping 38 points while shooting 7-for-11 from beyond the arc. Still, the Bucks have a proven formula for beating the Pacers, and I expect them to stick to the script.

The Rockets are a legitimate defensive threat. They rank 28th in pace and sixth in defensive rating. Losing Dillon Brooks to an injury hurts, but their slow pace of play means that unders will have value even with him shelved. Let’s take advantage of that fact tonight.

Matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Cade Cunningham under today because of the market inefficiency. The under 25.5 is priced at only -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -118 (54.1%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 25.5 priced down at -137 (57.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: Cade Cunningham Under 25.5 Points -105 at DraftKings

Miles Bridges Player Prop

The Charlotte Hornets are in the unenviable spot of having a road game against the Denver Nuggets as the first leg of a back-to-back set. The Hornets will stay on the West Coast for a game against the Sacramento Kings tomorrow. Things haven’t been going well in the Queen City lately — Charlotte has dropped its last 10 games, giving the Hornets the longest active losing streak in the NBA. I’m fading Miles Bridges in this spot.

Denver is a tough place to play for any team, but the reeling Hornets should get smacked on Monday. The books list Denver as a 15-point favorite. Denver’s defense has contained power forwards well this year, as the Nuggets have allowed the second-fewest points per game to the position (21.1). With both teams’ starters likely to get pulled well before the final whistle, Bridges won’t have much margin for error.

Bridges’ points prop is trading at 20.5 with the under priced at -110. He is averaging 19.4 points per game this year and 18.7 without LaMelo Ball. Bridges is also averaging just 18.3 points per game in road contests with shooting splits of 44/30/78. He should fall a few points short of this number tonight — especially if the books are right to expect a blowout.