Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Monday, January 15

Donovan Mitchell Player Prop

Donovan Mitchell has owned the Chicago Bulls since he joined the Cleveland Cavaliers. Across four meetings, Mitchell is averaging 36.8 points, 7.8 assists and 7.5 rebounds per game against them. However, Mitchell’s scoring average is inflated by a massive 71-point, 50-minute night. His points median versus Chicago is a less impressive 30.5 — which is exactly where his points prop is trading today.

I’m getting action on Mitchell’s points under in this spot. The Chicago Bulls aren’t a great team, but they’ve limited opposing point guards effectively. The Bulls lead the NBA in points allowed to point guards this year (21.6). They rank fifth over the last 15 games (23.2) as well. Chicago’s NBA-slowest pace deserves the bulk of the credit — fewer scoring opportunities means fewer points allowed.

Chicago’s defense has been most vulnerable in the corner and least vulnerable in the paint. The Bulls allow the fewest points in the paint per game (44), a zone wherein Mitchell takes 41% of his shots. While they also allow the most corner 3-pointers per game, Mitchell takes just 0.4 of those looks per game and rarely converts — just look at his shot chart.

The Heat aren’t a great rebounding team — Miami ranks just 20th in team rebound rate this year (49.7%) — but they are a slow team. Miami ranks 29th in pace on the year (98) and 26th over their last seven games (96.3), all of which they played without Jimmy Butler.

Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Nicolas Claxton under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 11.5 is priced at only -120 (54.5%) at ESPNBet — which is worse than the true odds of -136 (57.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 11.5 priced down at -150 (60%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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Stephen Curry Player Prop

Draymond Green will make his return to the court tonight, and that means it’s time to fade Stephen Curry in the assists column. Curry is averaging 4.8 assists per game this year. That number still sits at exactly 4.8 in games that Green plays, but Curry’s median drops to four in those contests, while his median with Green is six.

In 14 games with Green this year, Curry has dished out six or more assists just five times, giving the under 5.5 a raw win rate of 62.4%. The recent injury to Chris Paul had increased Curry’s passing volume — Curry is averaging 7.2 assists per game without Paul this year, tallying six or more in all but one of six games — but Green’s return should drop it back to normal.

It also helps that the Grizzlies are in a really bad place. Desmond Bane is out, Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable and both Marcus Smart and Ja Morant are on the shelf for a while. Golden State is trading as an 8-point road favorite, so we could be in for a blowout. Curry is averaging 5.3 assists per game in double-digit wins, staying under the 5.5 in four of seven.