Our scorching hot 8-0-1 run in this article came to an end with Saturday’s 1-2 showing. Combined with some non-article picks you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards are now up to 234-221-12 (+27.2u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Dejounte Murray, Immanuel Quickley and Luke Kennard If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Dejounte Murray & More
Immanuel Quickley Player Prop
It’s easy to tell what Immanuel Quickley has been doing well since joining the Toronto Raptors: cooking teams from outside the paint, especially from above the break. Tonight’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies bodes well for him because of his shot profile. Memphis has been somewhat stingy inside but has struggled to defend outside.
The Grizzlies rank a dreadful 27th in above-the-break 3-pointers allowed per game (10.4) and have allowed opposing teams to convert those looks at the sixth-highest clip (37.6%). Quickley fried the Grizzlies in one of his first games with the Raptors for 26 points on 5-for-8 from beyond the arc. With Pascal Siakam gone, Quickley’s usage rate should start ticking up.
It’s been tough sledding for Quickley lately. We cashed an under for him last week against the Chicago Bulls, and he is now averaging only 13.7 points per game through his last three. Those performances have cut his average as a Raptor to just 17.5 — and the total for his points prop to 18.5. Tonight’s game is a perfect buy-low opportunity, especially since Quickley’s last three opponents were slow-paced and defensively efficient teams. Memphis doesn’t meet those criteria.
I bought Quickley to go over the 18.5 at odds of -106 via FanDuel, but that number has since been bid off the board. Your best option now is the -110 at ESPNBet. Things could fluctuate as tip-off approaches, however, and I like this bet at anything better than -115. I’m also laddering Quickley to 25 (+340 at FanDuel), especially with both ESPNBet and DraftKings selling that line for less than +300.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Immanuel Quickley Over 18.5 Points -110 at ESPNBet
Luke Kennard Player Prop
We’re doubling down on tonight’s game between the Toronto Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies with this pick. Shooting guard Luke Kennard has been thrust into a far larger role with Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane and Ja Morant all out, but the fact remains he isn’t all that great of a passer. Kennard is averaging four assists per game as a starter this year, tallying fewer than five in three of seven starts with a ceiling of six. I’m fading him versus the Raptors tonight, and OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
The Raptors have played three games since the Pascal Siakam trade. Their pace has ticked down from 99.4 to 97.7. They gave up 27.3 assists per game in those contests, but most went to primary ball handlers, now low-volume passers like Kennard.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Luke Kennard under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 4.5 is priced at only -120 (54.6%) at Fanatics — which is worse than the true odds of -131 (56.7%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 4.5 for -151 (60.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Luke Kennard Under 26.5 Points -120 at Fanatics
Dejounte Murray Player Prop
I’ll admit that my final NBA player prop pick is more speculative than I like to get, but with so many teams on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, I’d rather play this angle than lose to injury news. Dejounte Murray will have to play a high-usage role versus the Sacramento Kings tonight with Trae Young sidelined, and I expect big things from him in this spot.
Murray has one start against the Domantas Sabonis–De’Aaron Fox Kings without Young. It came when he was still a member of the San Antonio Spurs, but it demonstrates his potential ceiling in this spot: Murray erupted for a 29-point showing with shooting splits of 55/50/75. He finished the first quarter with 10 after routinely driving into the paint. By the game’s end, he had also added a pair of makes from beyond the arc.
The Kings have fared surprisingly well in the restricted area this year given the defensive weaknesses of Sabonis. However, they have fared quite poorly in the non-restricted paint, where opposing teams are averaging the fourth-most made shots per game (9.1) on the fourth-highest conversion rate (46.8%). Murray took five shots from the non-restricted paint when Young sat out on Friday and has converted those looks at an impressive 48.2% rate this year.
Murray’s points prop is trading at 24.5 with the over priced at -105 on BetMGM. That seems a bit low for him without Young — Murray is averaging 24.7 points per game when Young sits this season. He averaged 25.3 last season. Over the full 10-game sample, Murray is averaging 25.1 points per game with a median of 24.5. Again, I like this wager down to about -115, largely because of Sacramento’s shaky defensive play.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 24.5 Points -105 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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