Last week was good for us — we scored a +5.4u return. Alongside picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards moved to 260-243-15 (+32.6) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for James Harden, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Fred VanVleet. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jaren Jackson Jr. & More
Jaren Jackson Jr. Player Prop
If you’re a regular reader of this column, Jaren Jackson Jr. has made several appearances of late. We finally lost our first bet on him of the season last week, but we’re running it back tonight. The Memphis Grizzlies are on the wrong end of a back-to-back and are 8-point dogs to the Sacramento Kings this evening, making it a prime spot to fade Jackson again.
Although the injuries to Desmond Bane, Ja Morant and Marcus Smart leave a lot of shots for Jackson to take, he just hasn’t been that efficient. In seven games since Bane’s injury, Jackson has shot 42/23/83 — down from his season averages (45/32/83) and career averages (46/35/80). While some may expect positive regression, I think the lesson is just that Jackson struggles when called upon to be the lead option.
Tonight’s game against the Kings won’t be easy for him. Although the Kings aren’t a great defensive team, they haven’t been giving away free points in the paint, which is where Jackson is most dangerous. Sacramento ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game over the last 15 (44) and eighth over the last seven (47.4). In terms of points allowed to centers, they rank first (17.8) and sixth (19.9) through those ranges.
Jackson’s points prop is trading at 27.5 almost everywhere, but you can buy the under 28.5 for -125 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Jackson has cleared that number just twice over the last seven contests and just eight times in 44 starts this year. Jackson has cleared this mark in just one of his eight starts versus Domantas Sabonis, too, both of which came when the Lithuanian-American superstar was still a member of the Indiana Pacers.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 28.5 Points -125 at DraftKings
Fred VanVleet Player Prop
The sportsbooks — well, at least PointsBet and Fanatics — woke up and decided to disrespect Fred VanVleet today. The veteran point guard’s points prop is trading at just 14.5 (the same number the books have posted for Austin Reaves). But while the sharp books have the over priced at almost -200, you’ll find the same wager trading at -120 on the aforementioned two books. OddsShopper Premium recommends buying the over, and I do, too.
VanVleet is averaging 17.1 points per game this year and has scored at least 15 in 26 of 43. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers have allowed the seventh-most points per game to point guards this year (26) and the sixth-most through the last seven games (29.1).
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Fred VanVleet over today because of the clear market inefficiency. The over 14.5 is priced at only -120 (54.6%) at Fanatics — which is worse than the true odds of -132 (56.9%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over 14.5 for -192 (65.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Fred VanVleet Over 14.5 Points -120 at Fanatics
James Harden Player Prop
We faded James Harden for a positive return last Friday. Let’s run things back — albeit a bit differently — with our column’s final NBA player prop pick. Harden draws a tough matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers this evening, and with Evan Mobley upgraded to questionable, the team’s stingy defense could get even stingier.
The injury to Ivica Zubac has moved Harden from the one to the two more often, as he has to spend more minutes alongside Russell Westbrook. Over the last 15 games, the Cavaliers rank 13th in points allowed per game to point guards (24.5) and first in assists (6.2). They also rank second in points allowed to shooting guards (19.9) and sixth in assists (5.6).
The pace is also a big part of why fading Harden makes so much sense tonight. The Cavaliers rank 21st in pace on the year (98.7). While that has ticked up lately, Mobley’s return would likely depress it. Meanwhile, the Clippers rank 26th in pace on the year (98.3) and 24th through the last 15 games (97.4). Harden just may not get the volume necessary for him to beat this line.
I posted the under 27.5 at -110 in the OddsShopper Premium Discord and on our expert picks page this morning, but before this article could go live, that number had already ticked down to -115 at Fanatics, where I bought it. You’ll find it trading for that price at DraftKings Sportsbook as well. Lock this one in before the price gets bid up even further.
NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 27.5 Points & Assists -115 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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