Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Monday, January 29

Jaren Jackson Jr. Player Prop

If you’re a regular reader of this column, Jaren Jackson Jr. has made several appearances of late. We finally lost our first bet on him of the season last week, but we’re running it back tonight. The Memphis Grizzlies are on the wrong end of a back-to-back and are 8-point dogs to the Sacramento Kings this evening, making it a prime spot to fade Jackson again.

Although the injuries to Desmond Bane, Ja Morant and Marcus Smart leave a lot of shots for Jackson to take, he just hasn’t been that efficient. In seven games since Bane’s injury, Jackson has shot 42/23/83 — down from his season averages (45/32/83) and career averages (46/35/80). While some may expect positive regression, I think the lesson is just that Jackson struggles when called upon to be the lead option.

Tonight’s game against the Kings won’t be easy for him. Although the Kings aren’t a great defensive team, they haven’t been giving away free points in the paint, which is where Jackson is most dangerous. Sacramento ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game over the last 15 (44) and eighth over the last seven (47.4). In terms of points allowed to centers, they rank first (17.8) and sixth (19.9) through those ranges.

VanVleet is averaging 17.1 points per game this year and has scored at least 15 in 26 of 43. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers have allowed the seventh-most points per game to point guards this year (26) and the sixth-most through the last seven games (29.1).

Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Fred VanVleet over today because of the clear market inefficiency. The over 14.5 is priced at only -120 (54.6%) at Fanatics — which is worse than the true odds of -132 (56.9%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over 14.5 for -192 (65.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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James Harden Player Prop

We faded James Harden for a positive return last Friday. Let’s run things back — albeit a bit differently — with our column’s final NBA player prop pick. Harden draws a tough matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers this evening, and with Evan Mobley upgraded to questionable, the team’s stingy defense could get even stingier.

The injury to Ivica Zubac has moved Harden from the one to the two more often, as he has to spend more minutes alongside Russell Westbrook. Over the last 15 games, the Cavaliers rank 13th in points allowed per game to point guards (24.5) and first in assists (6.2). They also rank second in points allowed to shooting guards (19.9) and sixth in assists (5.6).

The pace is also a big part of why fading Harden makes so much sense tonight. The Cavaliers rank 21st in pace on the year (98.7). While that has ticked up lately, Mobley’s return would likely depress it. Meanwhile, the Clippers rank 26th in pace on the year (98.3) and 24th through the last 15 games (97.4). Harden just may not get the volume necessary for him to beat this line.