We ended last week with a solid 2-1 showing in the article, even climbing a Jayson Tatum ladder all the way to 34! Still, my full NBA cards are sitting at 196-175-10 (+29.4) on the year after the weekend, which is right about where we were beforehand. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Bam Adebayo and Alperen Sengün. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & More
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a high-volume monster. He ranks fifth in usage rate among starters at 31.4%, but that number is somewhat misleading because of how little he turns the ball over. He is the only top-10 player by usage with a turnover rate below 25%. That usage has led him to average 31.5 points per game this year with a median performance of 33.
Alexander and the Thunder will visit the Washington Wizards tonight after taking multiple days off. OKC hasn’t seen the floor since Friday. Meanwhile, the Wizards are playing their third game in four days. The Thunder are trading as a 12-point favorite for this one, and the biggest concern for prospective SGA over bettors has to be a blowout.
I’m backing SGA for a big night regardless of the blowout risk because of his shot profile. Gilgeous-Alexander attempts 6.8 field goals per game in the restricted area and 12.9 in the paint. Those shot attempts constitute 32.8% and 62.3% of his total, respectively, and he leads the Thunder from both zones. The Wizards have allowed the second-most points in the paint this year (58.6) to go with the most made field goals in the restricted area (21.1) and the seventh-most in the non-restricted paint (8.2).
SGA’s splits also point to value here. He averages 1.2 more points per game on the road than at home, 2.1 more points per game in wins than in losses and 4.1 more points per game when coming off two nights of rest versus one. With the Thunder coming off multiple off nights and not playing again until Wednesday, I trust SGA to stick around for a while even in a blowout. I’m buying him to beat the 32.5 for -135 at ESPN and laddering him up to 40 (+240 at FanDuel) through 34.5 (+100 at ESPN) and 36.5 (+135 at ESPN).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points -135 at ESPNBet
Bam Adebayo Player Prop
The Jimmy Butler-less Miami Heat lean heavily on center Bam Adebayo. Last year, Adebayo averaged 22.3 points per game without Butler with a median of 21. This year, Adebayo is averaging 21.9 with a median of 20. With his point total trading at a whopping 23.5 for tonight’s game against the Houston Rockets, who have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to centers this year (21) and the fifth-fewest through the last 15 games (20.8), I can’t stay away from the under, and OddsShopper Premium can’t, either.
Houston, now coached by Ime Udoka, ranks fifth in defensive rating and 26th in pace. Those factors make it difficult for any center to put together a big game. They just held Brook Lopez to seven on Saturday.
Stats and matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Bam Adebayo under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 23.5 is priced at only -105 (51.2%) at Fanatics, which is worse than the true odds of -113 (53.1%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 23.5 priced down at -126 (55.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 23.5 Points -105 at Fanatics
Alperen Sengün Player Prop
This makes three columns in a row where we’re targeting center Alperen Sengün. He came through for us last Friday but came just short on Saturday, scoring 21 of the 22.5 we needed. I’m going back to the well here with a different angle for Monday’s action — we’re backing Sengün to do damage as a passer.
The Miami Heat excel at taking away a team’s top options, and Sengün leads the Rockets’ starters in usage rate this year (27.8%). However, the Heat haven’t excelled so much at preventing those top options from passing. The Heat rank 17th in assists allowed per game (26.9) and 27th in assists allowed per game at home (28).
With Sengün likely to face primary coverage from Adebayo, I expect him to pass out a bit more often, and his teammates should convert those looks into points. That’s been the theme in Miami lately — just look at the assist numbers of the high-usage stars they’ve faced lately: Devin Booker (10), Bradley Beal (9), LeBron James (9), Anthony Davis (6) and James Harden (10).
Another factor points to value here. Sengün comes in at odds of +116 to go over 4.5 assists at FanDuel. Not only has Sengün tallied five or more assists in a majority of his games (20/34, to be exact), but he has also been passing at an increasing volume — Sengün is averaging 8.1 potential assists per game this year but 8.6 over the last 10 and 10 over the last five. I’m laddering Sengün to eight (+850 at FanDuel) through six (+240 at FanDuel) to take advantage of this matchup and what I perceive as a significant misprice.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Alperen Sengün Over 4.5 Assists +116 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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