We’re back from a solid Sunday card with an intriguing, albeit injury-riddled, Monday slate. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks for Deandre Ayton, Stephen Curry and Dejounte Murray As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +17.7u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Stephen Curry & More
Deandre Ayton Player Prop
When I started putting together today’s NBA betting card, I checked out OddsShopper Premium to see some picks that were popping in the model. I found this Deandre Ayton player prop bet, and, after some quick research committed a full unit to this prop. In short: we’re beating Pinnacle, a sharp book, by a shockingly wide margin.
Ayton is averaging only 11.1 rebounds per game this season, but because he is averaging 14.3 since the All-Star Break, we’re able to buy the under 12.5 for odds of -108 on Caesars. Today’s matchup against the Bulls should prove tough — they have allowed the fourth-fewest rebounds per game to centers (13.1) over the last seven games. More importantly, no other book is taking action on this one better than -110, and several like FanDuel and ESPNBet, list it for -130 or so. Take a look at the market: breakdown
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, are enough to dramatically transform your bankroll. Over the last seven days, we’re cutting up the books for an 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Deandre Ayton Under 12.5 Rebounds -108 at Caesars
Dejounte Murray Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks just took down the Los Angeles Clippers last night. Dejounte Murray led the team with 21 points as Trae Young remains sidelined. They now have to play the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, and, with the spread up to 8.5 in L.A.’s favor, the Hawks have their work cut out for them.
No Atlanta player is better positioned to feast against this Los Angeles defense than Murray. The veteran point guard can light opposing teams up from deep or cook them in the paint, as his shot chart suggests. Since the All-Star Break, Murray leads the Hawks in points scored in the paint per game (10.2) and in above-the-break 3’s made (2.5) and attempted (7.5).
Importantly, the Lakers struggle where Murray is at his best. L.A. has coughed up the fourth-most points in the paint per game (53.7) and the third-highest conversion rate in the restricted area (72.8%), which should help Murray be more efficient at the rim. The Lakers have also allowed the third-most makes from above the break (11.3) since the pause as well.
Los Angeles’ defensive struggles in the paint and above the break have led them to allow the third-most points per game to point guards (29.6) over the last seven. Over the last 15, they rank eighth-worst (25.5) versus point guards and seventh-worst versus shooting guards (23.5). I’m backing Murray to fly over 25.5 points for odds of -105 at Hard Rock.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 25.5 Points -105 at Hard Rock
Stephen Curry Player Prop
Editor’s note (3/18/2024 at 4 p.m. ET): OG Anunoby has been ruled out. The below bet is still beating the market, per our +EV betting tools, so it remains on the card.
The Golden State Warriors will face the stingy New York Knicks this evening. Star defender OG Anunoby is questionable for New York, but he hasn’t missed a game since his return to the floor on March 12, and it’s probably safe to assume he’ll suit up.
When Anunoby is on the floor, the Knicks are borderline unstoppable. He returned three games ago, and since then, New York ranks first in defensive rating (93.9) by a 7.5-point margin. They also rank 28th in pace, minimizing the chances their opponents have had to put the ball in the hoop.
I’m probably going to fade multiple Warriors today, but I started by putting a unit on Stephen Curry to stay under 26.5 points. That’s a low total for Curry — he is averaging 27 points per game this year — but that number slips to 22 since the All-Star Break.
You’ll find Curry trading at -110 to stay under the 26.5 at most public books, including DraftKings. The same NBA player prop bet is trading at -130 at Pinnacle, so we’re beating the market for enough positive expected value (+EV).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry Under 26.5 Points -110 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
