The NBA playoffs are quickly approaching, but teams still have plenty of time to jockey for seeding. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Karl-Anthony Towns, Santi Aldama and Tyus Jones. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +23.3u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for LeBron James & More
Karl-Anthony Towns Player Prop
The Minnesota Timberwolves just suffered a brutal loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last night. Neither team reached the 90-point mark. The Timberwolves get a chance to bounce back versus the banged-up Portland Trail Blazers tonight, and I expect big things from Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns was held in check for only 18 last night, but he has gone for 21-plus points in two of his three meetings with the Blazers this season.
Towns’ shot profile aligns well with what we know the Blazers surrender. Portland struggles to defend the paint. As a team, they permit the fifth-most points in the paint per game (54.4). Portland has also coughed up the sixth-most points per game to centers (24.2) on the season. They have improved lately somewhat, but the potential absences of Jerami Grant (doubtful), Deandre Ayton (questionable) and Matisse Thybulle (questionable) could hold them back tonight.
Portland’s struggles against big men who can shoot are also noteworthy. The Blazers have allowed the ninth-most 3’s per game to centers this season (1.1) and the seventh-most over the last 15 games (1.2). Towns has shot 5-for-8 (63%) from beyond the arc versus Portland this season.
This spot is a great opportunity to buy low on Towns. He has stayed under the 20-point mark in his last three games but could get a chance to play without Rudy Gobert or Mike Conley tonight. Further, he is averaging 22.3 points per game this year and 23.4 since the start of 2024. Look for him to clear the 21-point mark for the third time versus Portland this season.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points -120 at BetMGM
Santi Aldama Player Prop
Betting on Santi Aldama may not be the most exciting thing, but it should prove profitable. Aldama, one of the Memphis Grizzlies forced into a starting role by injuries, is averaging only 5.8 boards per game since cracking the starting five in January. This line is just a bit too high to compensate for the likely absence of Jaren Jackson Jr. As a result, I like this under, as does OddsShopper Premium. Our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Santi Aldama under today due to the clear market inefficiency. The under 7.5 rebounds will cost you -115 (53.5%) at bet365, which is a better number than the true odds of -129 (56.3%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 7.5 for -146 (59.4%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Santi Aldama Under 7.5 Rebounds -115 at bet365
Tyus Jones Player Prop
Tonight’s battle between the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards could be sloppy. The Jazz are struggling against opposing bigs and wings, but the Wizards don’t exactly have great options at those positions. Still, this is a favorable matchup for Washington point guard Tyus Jones, especially in the assists column.
Jones is averaging only 7.3 assists per game this season, but since Jordan Poole fell out of the starting five on February 22, Jones has averaged 11.3 assists per game and 0.37 assists per minute. He eclipsed the 10.5-assist mark in four of those six games, only failing to do so in blowout losses in which he played less than 24 minutes.
While I like the Jazz to win and cover in this spot, I doubt they’ll win in a 20-point blowout like the Nuggets or Clippers, especially without Lauri Markkanen. Expect 30-plus minutes from Jones, which will put him on pace to tally more than 10.5 assists.
Utah’s specific defensive struggles are also worth revisiting. The Jazz have coughed up the most assists per game to point guards this year (10.6), over the last 15 games (11.9) and over the last seven (13.3). Jones’ assist prop is trading at too low of a number given his increased role, especially when you consider that he just dished out 14 assists versus the Jazz in February. I’m backing him to go over the 10.5 (+105 at BetMGM) and to beat the 14+ (+480 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyus Jones Over 10.5 Assists +105 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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