Last week was good to us, as we went a scorching hot 9-3 on NBA player prop picks, including a +165 Luguentz Dort ticket on Saturday. Can we keep up the pace? I’m optimistic about tonight — I’ve identified a pair of NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools for today’s action. Now let’s dive straight into my NBA player prop picks for Al Horford and Luka Doncic. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Luka Doncic & More
Al Horford Player Prop
I’ve got my eye on yet another plus-money NBA player prop with the first slot in this column. The Boston Celtics remain on the road against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, but despite their Game 2 upset, the Cavs are now 8.5-point home underdogs with Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen questionable.
Kristaps Porzingis remains out for the Celtics, which is key for Horford. The veteran big man averaged 11.6 points per game without Horford in the regular season. Although his postseason average without Porzingis dips to seven, he still cleared this number in Game 2 of this series. His lack of production in Game 5 of the Heat series stemmed from Boston’s blowout win, too.
Horford’s poor recent performance without Porzingis stems more from inefficient shooting splits (41/25/50) than a lack of volume. In the regular season, Horford’s splits without Porzingis were a far better 52/46/100. So has the 37-year-old (soon to be 38) veteran fallen off, or is he just in a slump? I suspect it’s the latter.
It’s possible the Celtics run the Cavs off the floor and choose to keep Horford on the bench, but considering they needed him for 39 minutes in a 13-point Game 3 win, I doubt that’ll happen. Let’s buy the dip on Horford as he looks to bounce back from a two-point, 14/00/NA shooting night in Game 3.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Al Horford Over 8.5 Points +100 at ESPNBET
For the best price currently available, check out our Al Horford points live odds page!
Luka Doncic Player Prop
This wasn’t how the playoffs were supposed to go for the No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder. They currently trail the No. 5 Dallas Mavericks and have another road game on tap tonight. Both losses were in the single digits, but you need to win close games in the playoffs. I’m optimistic that the Thunder can get back to the brand of basketball that led them to rank fourth in defensive efficiency (111) in the regular season.
It’ll be crucial for the Thunder to keep slowing down superstar Luka Doncic, who is averaging 23.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and seven assists per game this series. Those are well below his regular season averages of 33.9, 9.2 and 9.8, but OKC’s defense, combined with Doncic’s knee sprain and ankle soreness, have been a limitation. Fortunately for us, our NBA +EV betting tools reveal a massively off-market Doncic under with oodles of positive expected value (+EV):
The under 9.5 assists will cost you -115 at SuperBook but is trading between -174 and -210 at every public book at 9.5. Most public books are instead at 8.5 with the under trading between +120 and -105. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 8.5 priced at +114. This bet feels like stealing!
The model works by calculating the true odds (a breakeven price) of a wager, which, in today’s example, clock in at -128. It reaches that estimate by indexing the odds across the sports betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; then generating the true odds with that data.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 9.5 Assists -115 at SuperBook
For the best price currently available, see our Luka Doncic assists live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
