Isaiah and our NBA +EV betting tools have been absolutely killing it of late. They went 2-0 on Saturday again to bring his run to 26-10 over the last three weeks, and even though I’m stepping in for him today, know that OddsShopper Premium isn’t going anywhere. Let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Jayson Tatum and Aaron Nesmith, and check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jayson Tatum & More
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
This series being 3-0 creates a dynamic for Game 4 that’s a little hard to decipher. Every game has been close, and thus Tatum has played 42-plus minutes in all three. But also, down 3-0, maybe Indiana is more likely to throw in the towel if the deficit reaches 15 or 20? Or the Celtics could rest starters a little more knowing they have wiggle room in the series.
Tatum’s points + rebounds + assists line is high at 45.5, and given he is good for 30 points and 10 rebounds most nights, it’s a good line. If he falls below 30 points, however, chances are he is going to have a tough time reaching 46 PRA — look at the first game of the Miami series for proof, as he put up a triple-double but scored only 23 and thus ended up with 43 PRA.
That game was also a blowout, which has to be a factor here. Especially if Tyrese Haliburton is out again, the Pacers are on their last legs and have probably played each game about as close as they possibly can. They may be due for the clunker they are really yet to have.
Because Boston has largely cruised through the playoffs, Tatum only has four overs on 45.5 PRA in 13 games. Those four also happen to be his four 30-point games, so it seems that’s the number he has to reach to have a shot at 46 PRA.
OddsShopper gives Tatum only a 45% chance of getting there, and with the odds on the under even at -110 against -122 True Odds, that is the side to take. Our NBA player prop betting model have it at 4.8% +EV at BetMGM.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Under 45.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)
For the best price currently available, check out our Jayson Tatum live odds page!
Aaron Nesmith Player Prop
Some of the points in favor of Tatum’s under also apply to Nesmith over/under 4.5 rebounds– he’s been playing a lot of minutes, there is some blowout potential here, Indiana may rest starters down the stretch if the game gets out of reach. But even in a neutral script, Nesmith getting five rebounds or more is basically a 50-50 proposition. Nesmith has at least five rebounds in eight of 16 postseason games but was well shy of the 50% mark in the regular season — just 30.6% of his games. His role has undoubtedly changed in the playoffs, however.
Our NBA player prop betting model has the under on 4.5 rebounds at 49% tonight, but the plus money gives it plenty of positive expected value (+EV), nonetheless.
OddsShopper’s NBA +EV betting tools estimate the True Odds are +103, well below the +115 bet365 is offering. Truthfully, any sportsbook better than +103 is +EV, so you have a number of options, but bet365 offers the most value of the bunch at 5.7% +EV.
OddsShopper evaluates these True Odds by indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and using that information to generate an estimate.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Aaron Nesmith Under 4.5 Rebounds (+115 at bet365)
For the best price currently available, see our Aaron Nesmith live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
