The NBA rolls on with its first two-game playoff card since Friday. In the early spot, the Indiana Pacers will visit the New York Knicks; in the late spot, the Denver Nuggets will host the Minnesota Timberwolves as they look to climb out of a one-game hole. I’ve dug up two NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools, so let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Anthony Edwards and Myles Turner. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Edwards & More
Anthony Edwards Player Prop
The Minnesota Timberwolves scored a huge Game 1 upset over the Denver Nuggets behind a whopping 43 points from Anthony Edwards. The budding superstar shot a ridiculous 59/43/100 from the floor. He shot 8-for-12 on contested field goals and 9-for-17 on uncontested ones.
Denver’s defense had no answer for Edwards all game. Their players defended him too cautiously, not treating him like the elite scorer he is rapidly proving himself to be. The silver lining for Nuggets fans is that some simple adjustments and coaching fixes should give the Ant Man fewer high-quality shots.
Beyond defensive adjustments, Edwards’ hot shooting night isn’t likely sustainable. He averaged 25.9 points per game during the regular season on splits of 46/36/84. In the postseason, he has averaged 33.4 points on 53/44/87. So his 59/43/100 night, while impressive, isn’t something we should grow to expect from him — or any NBA player, for that matter. Michael Jordan only shot 50/39/86 on his way to the 1991-92 championship.
Edwards is already drawing Jordan comparisons, and, considering he is still just 22 years old, the optimism appears warranted. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be shut down, and in what’s now essentially a do-or-die game for the Nuggets, I expect him to be slowed down considerably. Look for the Nuggets to concentrate on Edwards more defensively tonight, holding him under 28.5 points.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 Points -101 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Anthony Edwards points live odds page!
Myles Turner Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers are gearing up for Game 1 of their series against the New York Knicks this evening, and the books don’t really expect the opener to be that close. The Knicks are a 6-point home favorite, and our NBA +EV betting tools recommend fading one member of the Pacers on the glass. We’re getting too much value to pass up the under for Myles Turner on the rebound markets with BetMGM hanging an off-market -105 for the under 7.5, which is giving us loads of positive expected value (+EV):
That -105 is miles ahead of the rest of the market. You can find a -108 or -110 in some spots. but it’s pretty much -118 to -130 everywhere else. Pinnacle, a sharp book, and Caesars, the sharpest of the public books, have this bet priced at -137 and -121, respectively.
Our model indexes the odds from across the sports betting landscape; adjusting them for hold, book sharpness and more; then projects a breakeven price (called “true odds”) with that information. If a bet is available for odds longer than its true odds, you’ve found a +EV spot!
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Myles Turner Under 7.5 Rebounds -105 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, see our Myles Turner rebounds live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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