After a measly two-game NBA slate last night, we’re back with nine games on Friday Night. Let’s get right into the top NBA player prop picks for this evening’s action. If you’re hungry for more bets, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Tyrese Maxey & More
Tyrese Maxey Player Prop
10-point spreads and player’s overs scream disaster. But not for Tyrese Maxey. Unlike teammate Joel Embiid, Maxey starts the fourth quarter for the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s averaging 7.7 points in the closing quarter in 8.7 minutes. Embiid, on the other hand, has appeared in the fourth quarter in just four of seven games. His rotation is playing all 12 minutes in the third and checking in halfway through the fourth if the Sixers need him. But due to the 76ers blowing out teams and jumping out to a 6-1 start this season, he has yet to be asked to close out games – that’s Maxey’s job. Tonight, against the woeful Detroit Pistons, we could be in line for one of those scenarios again. But we’re banking on Maxey playing upwards of 35 minutes and cashing the over on 29.5 Points and assists for the seventh time this season.
The Pistons have been abysmal at guarding the point guard position this season. Let’s take a lot at how some of the game’s best faired against Detroit.
Thanks to props.cash, they’ve logged for us what point guards have done in the points + assists column in the last week against Detroit.
Even with shooting struggles, Damian Lillard scored 34 points, while Giannis Antetokounmpo was ejected early in the third quarter. The game before. Stephen Curry and Chris Paul scored a combined 51 points and dished out 10 assists.
Maxey will be asked to do a ton with the ball tonight, including work in the pick and roll with Embiid. Maxey’s 24% usage rate this season will be enough to clear this line but look for him to not only take over late in this game but dish out to teammates Tobias Harris and Kelly Oubre.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points + Assists -125 at FanDuel
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
Here’s a late-night sweat for you. The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Sacramento Kings, who will be without De’Aaron Fox again. Insert defensive specialist Davion Mitchell into the starting lineup, who will most likely get the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assignment. Mitchell will look to make life extremely difficult for SGA, who is coming off a 43-point game against a stingy Cleveland Cavaliers squad. But we’re pivoting to Alexander’s assists tonight – a prop he has cashed in five of seven games to start the season.
The potential assist numbers for Alexander are among the league’s best. His 13.4 assist opportunities per game rank in the top 10 in all of basketball. That includes behind the likes of LaMelo Ball, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic. When targeting an assist prop, I look into pace of play and a high total. The Thunder play at the third fastest pace in the league, while the total of 231 is the third highest on the slate.
Alexander’s 35 minutes per game should be plenty of time to surpass six assists, especially against a Kings team, allowing the 10th most assists to the point guard position per game. While Mitchell has been in the starting lineup, Fred VanVleet dished out 12 assists last week and five in just 27 minutes last game.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ Assists -130 at FanDuel
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