The NBA has a relatively unimpressive four-game slate on tap this evening. The battle between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics could be interesting, but New York is on the wrong end of a back-to-back set and Boston is an 8.5-point favorite. Despite that lofty spread, the Celtics are the second-smallest favorite of the night. The Cleveland Cavaliers are the slate’s narrowest favorite with a 2.5-point advantage over the Sacramento Kings. I’ve got NBA player prop picks for that game as well as the slate’s other two offerings. If you’re hungry for more bets, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Zach LaVine & More
Zach LaVine Player Prop
The Milwaukee Bucks are terrible at defending the perimeter, and 3-point shooters facing Milwaukee have been a staple of this column to date. With Damian Lillard probable for Milwaukee tonight, I’m going back to the well for this Zach LaVine player prop pick. LaVine has feasted against Lillard in their eight career meetings with the Chicago Bulls for a whopping four 3-pointers per game. He went over the 2.5 six times.
The 2023-24 campaign has started cooly for LaVine. He is averaging 2.3 3-pointers per game, which isn’t bad, but on a conversion rate of only 32.4%, which would be the worst of LaVine’s career if he kept it up. He has gone over the 2.5 in just three of his 10 appearances as well. However, it’s worth noting that LaVine is on a back-to-back, and his career 3-point shooting percentage without rest (40.6%) is much better than his raw average (38.3%). It’s a tough spot for the Bulls, especially as 9.5-point underdogs, but I trust LaVine to make a splash early.
As mentioned earlier, you’ll find LaVine’s 3-pointers prop set to 2.5 with the juice slightly favoring the under. I’d keep the line at 2.5, but I’d have the juice stacked on the over in this spot. LaVine has been too good against Lillard — and the Bucks too bad on the perimeter — for me to pass this one up. The Bucks are allowing the sixth-most 3-pointers per game (13.6) on the ninth-worst conversion rate (36.9%). They’re also coughing up the fifth-most 3-pointers from above the break (10.4), a zone from which LaVine leads the Bulls in both makes (1.8) and attempts (5.7) per game.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Zach LaVine Over 2.5 3-Pointers -108 at FanDuel
Kevin Huerter Player Prop
The Sacramento Kings hadn’t gotten much out of Kevin Huerter this season — until recently. The veteran sharpshooter was averaging only 7.8 points per game heading into last Wednesday. Then, over the course of Wednesday and Friday, Huerter scored 45 points, bringing his average up to 11.5.
Huerter’s recent explosions shouldn’t dissuade prospective under bettors. Huerter is still competing with Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Chris Duarte and Sasha Vezenkov for both shots and minutes at wing, so a slow start can relegate him to the bench. We’ve seen Huerter log sub-20-minute performances twice this year.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Kevin Huerter under today. You’ll find his points total set to 15.5 — far higher than his season average (11.5). The public could be all over Huerter as he looks to roll his momentum forward into tonight’s game, but his shooting splits in his last two contests (50/42/100) aren’t sustainable relative to his career splits (44/38/77).
Huerter was due for some positive regression after starting the year with awful shooting splits (33/24/60), so it’s not surprising that he got back on track over the last two games. Still, if he starts coldly tonight, don’t expect the Kings to wait around for him to bounce back.
The -105 (51.2%) on BetMGM is worse than the true odds for this wager of -115 (53.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kevin Huerter Under 15.5 Points -105 at BetMGM
OG Anunoby Player Prop
Last year, the Toronto Raptors made up for inefficient offensive play by forcing a ton of turnovers. The Raptors ended the season ranked second in turnovers forced per game (16.6) as OG Anunoby averaged a career-high 1.9 steals per game. The Raptors have started off a bit slower in that regard this year: Toronto is forcing 14.4 turnovers while Anunoby is averaging 1.3 steals.
Tonight’s game against the Washington Wizards is a great spot for the Raptors to improve their turnover numbers. The Wizards are on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, which usually means sloppier play, and are playing at the NBA’s fastest pace, which means a few extra possessions for Anunoby to get the over.
The Wizards have done a decent job of preventing turnovers so far. They rank 12th in turnovers per game (14.3) and 10th in turnover rate (13.6%). However, steals have been a problem. The Wizards rank 23rd in steals allowed per game (9) and 30th in steals allowed per game to small forwards (2.7).
The new-look Wizards rely on Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole as primary ball-handlers. Anunoby has faced Kuzma with the Wizards four times, and he averaged two steals per game in those contests. Poole gives Anunoby another inefficient passer to target. With the veteran wing’s odds of recording multiple steals set to +135 on FanDuel, I’m eagerly investing in him at the current price.
NBA Player Prop Pick: OG Anunoby Over 1.5 Steals +135 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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