Tuesday brings us a loaded slate of basketball action, which allows us to choose our spots for the following NBA player prop picks more precisely. However, with what seems like half the league listed as questionable — Joel Embiid, Trae Young, Stephen Curry and LeBron James have all picked up injury designations — it’s still proving somewhat tough to handicap. I’ve found a handful of props worth targeting away from those four players’ games, so let’s dive right in. If you’re hungry for more bets, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for LaMelo Ball & More
Luguentz Dort Player Prop
The San Antonio Spurs have not figured out how to defend the corner yet. They have coughed up a whopping five corner 3-pointers per game, most in the NBA, on a 47.2% conversion rate, second-highest in the NBA. They’re not quite as bad at stopping shots from above the break, but they’re still coughing up 10.3 of them per game, good for the most 3-pointers allowed per game (15.3) on the highest conversion rate (40.5%). Yikes.
Enter Luguentz Dort. Although the Oklahoma City Thunder play a positionless brand of basketball that doesn’t thrust any one player into a predictable role in the corner, Dort leads the Thunder in corner 3-pointers attempted per game (1.7) and ranks fourth in above-the-break 3-pointers attempted per game (3.4). He is averaging 2.3 3-pointers per game on the year, tallying multiple 3-pointers in seven of his 10 starts. We only need Dort to have an average night against an atrocious defense to make some money.
DraftKings Sportsbook has opened the bidding on Dort’s 3-pointers at the bargain-bin price of 1.5 for -135. You’ll find him to record 3-plus 3-pointers at +205 over there but all the way up at +260 on FanDuel. I advise wagering enough to secure a half-unit return on the standard total at DraftKings — along with a half-unit wager on the 3-plus at FanDuel — to take full advantage of this mismatch. Dort has gone for 3-plus 3-pointers in half of his starts against the Spurs, including two of his last four and five of his last eight, so such long odds present some serious value in this spot. You can even use your 25% profit boost at DraftKings to get this one at odds of -109!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 3-Pointers -135 at DraftKings
LaMelo Ball Player Prop
The Miami Heat have owned LaMelo Ball to this point in his career. The budding star is averaging 21.6 points per game this season and 19.5 points per game throughout his career. However, he has averaged just 14.6 points per game against the Heat with a career-best performance of 19 points in his last two starts against them.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this LaMelo Ball under today. You’ll find his points total set to 24.5 — far higher than his season average (21.6) and his average against the Heat (14.6). Although Ball is averaging a monstrous 30.3 points per game with Terry Rozier sidelined over the last four games, two of those performances came against the NBA’s worst defense, the Washington Wizards.
Ball must now face the stingy Miami Heat defense. The Heat rank ninth in defensive rating and 12th in points allowed per game to point guards (22.6). They play at around a league-average pace, which is slower than the pace of three of Ball’s recent opponents (Wizards twice, Dallas Mavericks).
The -110 (52.4%) on BetMGM is worse than the true odds for this wager of -124 (55.4%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!
NBA Player Prop Pick: LaMelo Ball Under 24.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
James Harden Player Prop
Let’s wrap things up with a quick chat about James Harden. The Los Angeles Clippers are a much better team with him off the floor than with him on it. Specifically, their net rating is -25.8 with him out there and +6.8 with him not there. For some perspective, the Clippers are +6.8 with Russell Westbrook on the floor and are -5.2 with him off it. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are both positive contributors as well. Harden is holding them back.
It’s unclear what head coach Tyronn Lue intends to do with Harden moving forward, but his first four games have been a disaster. He is averaging 13.5 points, five rebounds and 4.3 assists — good for 22.8 PRA — but the books have him for 26.5 PRA today. Notably, Harden’s minutes have declined over the last two games. He failed to clear the 30-minute threshold in both contests.
The Clippers will visit the Denver Nuggets tonight, marking Harden’s first start in Denver since 2020. Harden was 31 years old then. He is 34 years old now. Adjusting to the thinner Denver air would’ve been much easier for him in the past (although he allegedly spent his offseason training at altitude in Aspen, Col.), but it’ll be much harder now.
The Clippers have used Harden at the two and the three this year, which bodes poorly for him, as the Nuggets allow the seventh-fewest points per game to twos (20.6) and the eighth-fewest to threes (19.9). I’m fading Harden on the PRA markets — while he has beaten his points prop (15.5), he is yet to surpass his mark on the PRA market (26.5).
NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 26.5 PRA -110 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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