Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Nov. 15

Jusuf Nurkic Player Prop

The Phoenix Suns are expected to debut their big three of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker on Wednesday. All three have seen at least some action this year, but they are yet to take the court together. With that projected to change against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, I expect some contributions from center Jusuf Nurkic on the perimeter. The Timberwolves defense won’t be able to answer all of Phoenix’s threats — especially on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, which should benefit Nurkic.

Nurkic has struggled with 3-pointers so far this season, but importantly, the shots have been there. He is averaging 2.9 attempts per game. At last year’s conversion rate of 36.1%, he’d be making a 3-pointer per game; this year, he is making just 0.7. However, it’s worth noting that Nurkic is averaging a 3-pointer per game in Phoenix with a conversion rate of 31.3%. We just need an average night for him at the Footprint Center to win this bet.

Domantas Sabonis Player Prop

The Sacramento Kings finally got De’Aaron Fox back in the starting lineup, and that should mean less pressure on center Domantas Sabonis to put up points. But while his usage should tick down, his scoring tends to tick up — Sabonis is averaging 18.5 points per game without Fox since joining the Kings but 19.1 points with him.

Sabonis draws an unfavorable matchup with Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. Sabonis has averaged only 17.8 points per game against the Los Angeles Lakers with the Kings. That rate drops to 16.5 with Davis active. The Lakers are allowing the fifth-fewest points per game to centers this year (19.5).

Our NBA betting tools want action on this Domantas Sabonis under today. His points total is set to a reasonable 17.5, but the pricing disparity across the market points to serious value on the under. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under at -142, which is far below where all the public books are taking action on it.

The -104 (50.9%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds for this wager of -142 (56.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!

NBA Player Prop Pick: Domantas Sabonis Under 17.5 -104 at FanDuel

Luka Doncic Player Prop

Let’s get some action on the Dallas Mavericks tonight. They’ll take on the NBA’s worst defense, the Washington Wizards, who simultaneously rank 25th in defensive rating (116.6) and first in pace (105). That’s a recipe for a few extra possessions for this Mavericks team tonight, and I expect no one to benefit more than Luka Doncic.

But we’re not targeting Doncic as a scorer — instead, we’re targeting him on the assist markets. Doncic is averaging 7.9 assists on 14.9 potential assists this year, tallying at least eight in seven of his 11 starts. Meanwhile, Washington is allowing the most assists per game to all players (29.2), the fifth-most to point guards (9.5) and the most to shooting guards (6.6).

Washington’s defense is struggling because of its inability to defend the wing and the paint. The Wiz have coughed up the second-most points in the paint per game (58.4) on the second-most made field goals in the restricted area (20.8). They have also allowed the third-most corner 3-pointers per game (4.7).

Doncic leads the Mavericks in usage rate, but he trails Dereck Lively II in shot volume in the restricted area, and he almost never shoots from the corner. Although Doncic can do it all, I expect he’ll realize the Mavericks have their best shot at winning if he works as a playmaker tonight. Back Doncic to record over 7.5 assists for -145 at bet365 and to record 10-plus at +195 at DraftKings.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Over 7.5 Assists -145 at bet365