Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Nov. 18

Jaden McDaniels Player Prop

I’m going to bury the lede a bit by discussing wing Jaden McDaniels before getting into my NBA player prop picks for stars Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Why? Well, I’m simply most interested in this one. McDaniels has gotten off to a rocky 2023-34 campaign and is averaging just 1.1 3-pointers per game on a 37% conversion rate, but over the last two years, he has averaged 1.3 on a 39.5% conversion rate.

McDaniels finds himself in a lower-usage role with Anthony Edwards breaking out and both Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns healthy, but I’m optimistic about his role in tonight’s game. The Timberwolves faced the Pelicans earlier this month, and McDaniels sunk a pair of 3-pointers on a 40% conversion rate. He has hit at least two 3-pointers in half of his starts against New Orleans since the start of last season. I expect him to keep that streak alive tonight.

Rudy Gobert Player Prop

Some books just don’t know what they’re doing. In this case, that’s SugarHouse, Unibet, BetRivers and SuperBook. Rudy Gobert is listed at odds of -115 to record a double-double at those sites. Although I’m no big fan of Gobert’s, he is averaging 11.2 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. He has recorded eight double-doubles in 11 starts.

The veteran center has double-digit boards in 10 of his 11 appearances but double-digit points in just eight. Fortunately, he scored a season-best 17 points in his last start against the Pelicans, in which he also tallied a season-best 21 rebounds.

Our NBA betting tools want action on this Rudy Gobert prop today. The pricing disparity across the market points to serious value on in this spot: Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it -157, which is far below where all the aforementioned books are taking action.

The -115 (53.5%) on SuperBook is worse than the true odds for this wager of -128 (56.1%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!

NBA Player Prop Pick: Rudy Gobert Double-Double -115 at SuperBook

Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop

The Milwaukee Bucks will host the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Bucks just blew out the Charlotte Hornets last night, and they didn’t need much production from their stars to do so: Giannis Antetokounmpo played only 28 minutes and scored 16 points.

The Bucks have yet to submit their injury report for this game, but because they were able to limit their veterans’ minutes, I’m not expecting it to be lengthy. We should see Giannis tonight, and, given what we’ve seen out of Dallas’ defense, we should see a lot of him.

The Mavericks struggle against what Giannis does well. They have coughed up the most points per game to power forwards (27.8) and the second-most points per game in the paint (57). Giannis leads the Bucks in shots in the restricted area (9.5) and the non-restricted paint (4.2).

Dallas’ poor paint defense isn’t limited to either inside or outside the restricted area: opposing shooters make 72.8% of their shots in the restricted area and 50% of them just outside it. The Mavericks rank 30th and 28th in those zones, respectively.

This spot is a great one to ladder Giannis’ points. He is averaging just 28.3 per game this year, down from 31.1 last year, but the addition of Damian Lillard and this defensive matchup should create plenty of holes for him to exploit.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 29.5 Points -120 at FanDuel