It may be college football Saturday, but the NBA is offering up a six-game slate with some value. Two of the card’s most interesting matchups include the Minnesota Timberwolves visiting the New Orleans Pelicans and the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Milwaukee Bucks, and I’ve got NBA player prop picks for them both. Those teams are a combined 31-16 and all appear set to make playoff runs — if they can stay (or get!) healthy. If you’re hungry for more bets, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Giannis Antetokounmpo & More
Jaden McDaniels Player Prop
I’m going to bury the lede a bit by discussing wing Jaden McDaniels before getting into my NBA player prop picks for stars Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Why? Well, I’m simply most interested in this one. McDaniels has gotten off to a rocky 2023-34 campaign and is averaging just 1.1 3-pointers per game on a 37% conversion rate, but over the last two years, he has averaged 1.3 on a 39.5% conversion rate.
McDaniels finds himself in a lower-usage role with Anthony Edwards breaking out and both Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns healthy, but I’m optimistic about his role in tonight’s game. The Timberwolves faced the Pelicans earlier this month, and McDaniels sunk a pair of 3-pointers on a 40% conversion rate. He has hit at least two 3-pointers in half of his starts against New Orleans since the start of last season. I expect him to keep that streak alive tonight.
Jaden McDaniels sits at a lofty +170 on bet365 to go over his 3-pointers total of 1.5. If that book isn’t legal in your state, the next-best price is the +165 on DraftKings. Those prices are both steals — McDaniels leads the Timberwolves in corner 3-pointers made (0.7) and attempted (1.6) per game, and, as you can tell by his shot chart over the last two seasons, he is quite efficient from that zone. McDaniels has converted 42.9% of his looks from the corner this year. With New Orleans coughing up the fifth-most corner 3-pointers per game, I’m locking this one in at bet365. New to Bet365? Check out our Bet365 bonus codes — turn $5 into $150 in bonus bets.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 3-Pointers +170 at bet365
Rudy Gobert Player Prop
Some books just don’t know what they’re doing. In this case, that’s SugarHouse, Unibet, BetRivers and SuperBook. Rudy Gobert is listed at odds of -115 to record a double-double at those sites. Although I’m no big fan of Gobert’s, he is averaging 11.2 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. He has recorded eight double-doubles in 11 starts.
The veteran center has double-digit boards in 10 of his 11 appearances but double-digit points in just eight. Fortunately, he scored a season-best 17 points in his last start against the Pelicans, in which he also tallied a season-best 21 rebounds.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Rudy Gobert prop today. The pricing disparity across the market points to serious value on in this spot: Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it -157, which is far below where all the aforementioned books are taking action.
The -115 (53.5%) on SuperBook is worse than the true odds for this wager of -128 (56.1%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Rudy Gobert Double-Double -115 at SuperBook
Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop
The Milwaukee Bucks will host the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Bucks just blew out the Charlotte Hornets last night, and they didn’t need much production from their stars to do so: Giannis Antetokounmpo played only 28 minutes and scored 16 points.
The Bucks have yet to submit their injury report for this game, but because they were able to limit their veterans’ minutes, I’m not expecting it to be lengthy. We should see Giannis tonight, and, given what we’ve seen out of Dallas’ defense, we should see a lot of him.
The Mavericks struggle against what Giannis does well. They have coughed up the most points per game to power forwards (27.8) and the second-most points per game in the paint (57). Giannis leads the Bucks in shots in the restricted area (9.5) and the non-restricted paint (4.2).
Dallas’ poor paint defense isn’t limited to either inside or outside the restricted area: opposing shooters make 72.8% of their shots in the restricted area and 50% of them just outside it. The Mavericks rank 30th and 28th in those zones, respectively.
This spot is a great one to ladder Giannis’ points. He is averaging just 28.3 per game this year, down from 31.1 last year, but the addition of Damian Lillard and this defensive matchup should create plenty of holes for him to exploit.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 29.5 Points -120 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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