Let’s go! We secured a 2-1 card yesterday (3-1 if you tailed me on TikTok) with two plus-money winners. Our only loser was by the hook. That brings us to a very profitable 6-3 for article plays on the week. So what are today’s best NBA player prop picks? Let’s dive right in. If you’re hungry for more action, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for C.J. McCollum & More
Dennis Schröder Player Prop
Let’s talk Dennis Schröder. He just cashed a +106 ticket for us last night, which came on the over for his 3-pointers. He’ll have to get back on the floor tonight, but the Raptors were up so big on the Bucks that only Pascal Siakam had to play more than 30 minutes. Although not generally seen as an effective perimeter shooter, Schröder has gone a whopping 13-for-26 (50%) from deep this year while averaging 2.6 3-pointers per game.
Although I don’t believe Schröder’s hot start is that sustainable, I’m trusting him again tonight. He draws a Philadelphia 76ers team that’s likely to thrust Kelly Oubre Jr. into the starting and closing lineups to replace P.J. Tucker, which will have consequences on the perimeter. Schröder already benefits from playing alongside a long list of players who can cut to the basket effectively, which helped him rack up four 3-pointers and 10 assists in his prior meeting with the 76ers this season.
You’ll find Schröder’s 3-point prop set to 1.5 again, albeit with the over priced at -104 on FanDuel, down from the +106 we got yesterday. What’s interesting about Schröder is that he feasts on back-to-backs — his impressive game against the 76ers earlier this year was on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, and his career 3-point shooting percentage without rest (36.9%) is better than his overall average (33.9%). Dennis the Menace should get plenty of open looks from the boundary as the 76ers will have to defend multiple players who can drive to the rim. Fortunately, those players are also more than capable of effectively passing back to Schröder. If you’re new to FanDuel, you can bet $5 on a moneyline and win $150 in bonus bets if your team wins!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dennis Schröder Over 1.5 3-Pointers -104 at FanDuel
C.J. McCollum Player Prop
The New Orleans Pelicans have an elite forward duo in Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. While Ingram has missed the team’s last two games with a knee injury, it’s unclear if he’ll be available tonight, so the books are hedging with their C.J. McCollum player prop lines. That creates an opportunity for us.
Even if Ingram sits, it’s not like McCollum is guaranteed to go for 20-plus points. He recorded 19 in the first game Ingram missed before tallying 29 in 37 minutes last night. The 32-year-old veteran could see his minutes scaled back in this spot, especially against a struggling, banged-up Pistons squad.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this C.J. McCollum under today. You’ll find his points total set to 20.5 — slightly less than his season average (21) but far more than his season average with Ingram (18) and a product of his unsustainably high 44.1% conversion rate from beyond the arc. McCollum shot only 38.9% from long range last year.
The under is priced at -105 (51.2%) on DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -113 (53.1%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!
NBA Player Prop Pick: C.J. McCollum Under 20.5 Points -106 at DraftKings
Franz Wagner Player Prop
The Utah Jazz just beat the Memphis Grizzlies last night, but they’ll now have to face a better-rested Orlando Magic squad that has looked surprisingly plucky to start the year. A lot of Orlando’s success falls on third-year wing Franz Wagner, who owns a box plus-minus of +24 through four games. Although he is averaging only 18 points per game thus far, this is a great spot for him to go off.
The Utah Jazz have struggled in multiple facets of the game. For one, they are allowing the sixth-most points in the paint per game (53.6). Most of that production in the paint has come outside of the restricted area, where they have allowed the fourth-most made shots (9.4) on the highest conversion rate (55.3%). Wagner feasts in that part of the floor, especially against the Jazz — look at his shot chart from last year.
That point brings us to our last (and most simple) one: Wagner owned the Jazz last season. He averaged 25 points per game against them on shooting splits of 46.3/47.4/60 largely a function of interior shotmaking and 3-pointers. He stayed out of foul trouble as well. The Jazz may have an effective rim protector in Walker Kessler, but they don’t really have capable defenders anywhere else.
We’ve seen plenty of big wings like Wagner go off against the Jazz this year. Aaron Gordon hung 21 on them. Kevin Durant went off for 26. Harrison Barnes opened the season with a 33-point showing as well.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Franz Wagner Over 18.5 Points +100 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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