Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Nov. 8

Bruce Brown Player Prop

The Indiana Pacers probably weren’t a feisty wing away from contending for an NBA Championship, but they went out and brought in Bruce Brown from Denver anyway. Brown has played fine for them thus far — he is averaging 2 3-pointers per game on 45.2% from beyond the arc while contributing plenty in other statistical categories. With a home matchup against the Utah Jazz on the schedule, I’m trusting Brown to make another splash.

The Jazz have struggled to stop opposing shooters, especially in the corner. They have coughed up the seventh-most corner 3’s per game (4.1) on the third-highest conversion rate (47.1%). That benefits Brown, who is averaging 1.1 makes and 1.9 attempts from the corner per game. It helps the Pacers are at home for this one — all of Brown’s made 3’s have come in Indiana, where he is averaging 2.8 per game with a conversion rate of 51.9%!

Stephen Curry Player Prop

Stephen Curry has put together an electric start to the 2023-24 campaign. The veteran guard is averaging 30.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists — good for 40 total points, rebounds and assists (PRA). However, he now draws a tough Denver Nuggets team on the road. He played them in Denver twice last year and recorded totals of 38 and 28 PRA.

Our NBA betting tools want action on this Stephen Curry under today. You’ll find his PRA total set to 39.5 — slightly less than his season average (40) but far less than his average in Denver last year (33). With Pinnacle taking action on the under 38.5 at -124, we’re getting a one-PRA discount for a better price.

The -106 (51.5%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds of -119 (54.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!

NBA Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry Under 39.5 PRA -106 at FanDuel

Luka Doncic Player Prop

The Toronto Raptors have been playing spicily to start the season. We’ve seen them beat the Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves while keeping things close against the Philadelphia 76ers. This Raptors squad isn’t perfect, but their defense is fifth in points allowed per game (107.4) and sixth in defensive rating (107.3).

The Raptors have excelled at forcing their opponents to create their own shots. Toronto ranks second in assists allowed per game (21.9), third in assists allowed per game to shooting guards (4.4) and third in assists allowed per game to point guards (6.5). Doncic hasn’t played the Raptors since last November, but he averaged just 7.5 assists per game across their two meetings. He now must compete with Kyrie Irving for assists.

Luka Doncic gets plenty of chances to dish out assists, but his teammates have often let him down. Doncic is averaging 8.9 assists per game this year, slightly more than today’s prop total (8.5), but far less than his per-game average for potential assists (16.6). However, that 53% conversion rate is exactly the same as it was last year, so I’m not too worried about positive regression.

Our NBA betting tools make this play that much more obvious as a value. BetMGM is the only book taking action on the under at -115 — every other book lists it at -120 or worse. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has it priced at a market-high price of -140. If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, check out our BetMGM bonus code for free OddsShopper Premium and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 8.5 Assists -115 at BetMGM