After a teaser two-game card to whet our appetites, the NBA returns in full force with a loaded 12-game card tonight. Two big games, Celtics-Knicks and Mavericks-Spurs, will appear on ESPN. I’m more interested in targeting NBA player props in a handful of lower-profile games, however — we’re turning to players on the Atlanta Hawks, Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Clippers. If you’re hungry for more action, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos!
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for De’Aaron Fox & More
Saddiq Bey Player Prop
You may not care much about Saddiq Bey or the Atlanta Hawks, but you should. The veteran wing was shipped off to Atlanta from Detroit last season. After the deal, he averaged exactly two 3-pointers per game on a 40% conversion rate in 25 regular-season appearances. Bey kept things rolling in the preseason by averaging 1.7 3-pointers per game on a 45.5% conversion rate. The Hawks have plenty of options at wing, including Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter, but their decision to part ways with John Collins in the offseason leaves all three with plenty of minutes to share.
Bey takes on a Charlotte Hornets team that’s both fast and bad at defense — especially on the perimeter. The Hornets coughed up the sixth-most corner 3’s last year (3.6), which is Bey’s primary zone as a shooter, on the fifth-highest conversion rate (40%). Bey played the Hornets once with the Hawks and shot 3-for-5 from beyond the arc. Bey is averaging exactly three 3-pointers per game against the Hornets dating back to 2020-21, failing to tally multiple 3-pointers in just one of those appearances. The Hornets also allowed the fourth-most 3-pointers per game to small forwards (3).
The total for Bey’s 3-pointer prop sits at 1.5. He has gone over that number eight times against the Hornets, and while he may have a smaller role in Atlanta than he did in Detroit, that serves to keep opposing defenders away from him. The Collins trade will also free up the minutes necessary for Bey to do some meaningful damage. You’ll find the best odds for this one at DraftKings, which is taking action on it at -130. If you haven’t signed up at DraftKings yet, check out our DraftKings Promo Codes. They’re also offering a 50% profit boost on the NBA today.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Saddiq Bey Over 1.5 3-Pointers -130 at DraftKings
De’Aaron Fox Player Prop
The Sacramento Kings were one of the best stories in the NBA last season. They finally broke their lengthy playoff curse, and they even gave the Golden State Warriors a run for their money in the opening round of the playoffs. They retained their core in the offseason, and this team will look to run things back in 2023-24. Point guard De’Aaron Fox was a crucial part of their turnaround and averaged 25 points per game.
Fox draws a matchup with the lowly Utah Jazz tonight. Sacramento is only a slight road favorite for the contest, which is good for bettors looking to play Fox’s overs because he is likely to stick in the game for longer stretches. Fox also owned the Jazz last season, racking up point totals of 24, 37 and 37 across three starts. Although much has been said about second-year center Walker Kessler’s rim protection, Fox just decided to score from outside the paint — he shot 6-for-9 from beyond the arc.
The books are taking action on Fox’s points prop at 25.5. You’ll find the over priced at -109 via Caesars. Fox went over that number twice against the Jazz last year and in 36 of his 73 appearances. While Kessler’s rim protection will likely limit the openings Fox gets in the paint, he has breakaway speed to do damage on the fast break, and the Jazz coughed up the second-most fast break points per game last year (16.8).
NBA Player Prop Pick: De’Aaron Fox Over 25.5 Points -109 at Caesars
Russell Westbrook Player Prop
The Los Angeles Clippers added Russell Westbrook after his release from the Utah Jazz last season, and the veteran point guard proved serviceable for them. He averaged 15.8 points per game in the regular season. That number dipped to 13.3 in the 12 games he spent playing alongside Paul George.
Westbrook faces a rebuilding Portland Trail Blazers team. While that likely means the Clippers will win — they’re nine-point home favorites, after all. Westbrook averaged only 14.3 points per game in wins last year, likely because he is one of the first veterans to get pulled in blowouts.
Our NBA betting tools love this Russell Westbrook under today. You’ll find the under 16.5 points priced at -125 (55.6%), which is far worse than the true odds of -145 (59.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Russell Westbrook Under 16.5 Points -125 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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