After a jam-packed Wednesday card, the NBA scales back to a two-game card for Thursday night — but value remains to be exploited on the NBA player prop markets. The Philadelphia 76ers will visit the new-look Milwaukee Bucks at 7:30 p.m. ET, then the 1-0 Phoenix Suns will visit the 0-1 Los Angeles Lakers at 10 p.m. ET. Both games will be broadcast via TNT. So what are today’s best NBA player prop picks? Let’s dive right in. If you’re hungry for more action, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos!
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Davis & More
Brook Lopez Player Prop
The Milwaukee Bucks made a splash in the offseason by landing star guard Damian Lillard. Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo form an elite set of scoring options for the Bucks, but what’s gone under-discussed is how that pairing will free up Milwaukee’s other players. The team’s starting lineup now features Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez, and I expect Lopez to cook from beyond the arc tonight.
Lopez has historically played well against the 76ers, especially with Joel Embiid at the five. Lopez is averaging 2.5 3-pointers per game against the 76ers since joining the Bucks on a conversion rate of 38.9%. He hit at least a pair of 3-pointers in three of his four meetings with the 76ers last year and is averaging exactly three per game over their last six meetings. Embiid’s lackluster perimeter defense will come back to bite him tonight. Players who may have bailed him out before have more to worry about.
The total for Lopez’s 3-pointer prop sits at 1.5 with the over well into the plus money. That’s a mistake for the reasons outlined above — the odds at Caesars sit at +159 (38.6%) but his raw hit rate against the 76ers converts to -179 (64.2%). While Lopez’s usage may tick down with Lillard in town, we’ve seen plenty of evidence that Embiid and the 76ers are comfortable leaving him open. I trust him to capitalize on those chances. If you’re new to Caesars, check out our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for your first bet on the house up to $1,000.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brook Lopez Over 1.5 3-Pointers +159 at Caesars
Anthony Davis Player Prop
Sometimes you have to trust offseason narratives. Head coach Darvin Ham told the media that he wanted Anthony Davis to shoot six 3-pointers per game in early October. Davis went 1-for-2 from beyond the arc against the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday in a game where the Lakers never looked truly comfortable. With one game under their belts, I expect Ham to make Davis’ perimeter shot a point of emphasis heading into tonight’s contest against the Phoenix Suns.
Davis hasn’t been an effective or high-volume perimeter shooter in a few years, but when he first arrived in L.A., he was averaging 1.2 3-pointers on 3.5 attempts per game. Although that production cratered to only 0.3 on 1.3 last season, Ham’s offseason rhetoric makes betting on an uptick intriguing. Davis is averaging 0.4 3-pointers on 1.3 attempts against new Suns center Jusuf Nurkic dating back to his arrival in L.A. as well.
The books have this one reasonably priced. The total for Davis’ 3-pointer prop sits squarely at 0.5 with the juice slightly favoring the over at -130 (56.5%). Davis cashed the over on Opening Night despite only pulling up twice. Last year, his raw hit rate converted to only +300 (25%), so there is plenty of risk with this play, but I’m willing to be bold — especially after Phoenix coughed up a 3-pointer to Golden State’s reserve big man, Dario Saric, on Opening Night.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Davis Over 0.5 3-Pointers -130 at DraftKings
Khris Middleton Player Prop
With Damian Lillard now in town, should we expect a downtick in production from veteran Khris Middleton? He averaged 15.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists over 24.3 minutes per game last year. His unders are now popping in our NBA betting tools.
Our NBA betting tools love this Khris Middleton under today. You’ll find his points, rebounds and assists total set to 20.5 points with the under priced at +100 (50%) on FanDuel, which is worse than the true odds of -111 (52.6%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Khris Middleton Under 20.5 PRA +100 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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