We had ourselves a day in yesterday’s column by putting together a 3-0 run. We cashed props on Brook Lopez, Anthony Davis and Khris Middleton. Let’s keep the momentum rolling on tonight’s stacked 11-game card that features two games — Heat at Celtics and Warriors at Kings — that you can tune into live via ESPN. So what are today’s best NBA player prop picks? Let’s dive right in. If you’re hungry for more action, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos!
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kawhi Leonard & More
Kawhi Leonard Player Prop
The Utah Jazz could not defend the wing to save their lives in Wednesday’s opener. They coughed up 33 points to Harrison Barnes, 15 points to Keegan Murray and plenty of other points to Sacramento’s bench wings. It was ugly. They’ll now have to face a team whose strength lies in strong wing play, the Los Angeles Clippers, who have superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George at the position.
If the Jazz don’t make major changes, which they probably won’t have time to do, they’ll get cooked by Kawhi Leonard tonight. Leonard hasn’t seen the new-look Jazz lineup for more than a rehabilitation start, so we don’t know what he is capable of here. However, do know what he has done against one of their key wing defenders, John Collins. Leonard is averaging 29.3 points per game against Collins through four starts.
The total for Leonard’s points prop sits at 24.5 with the over priced at even in some spots. That’s just too much value to turn down. Leonard has an incredibly high ceiling, and, although he averaged only 23.8 points per game last year, he went over this number in 26 of his 52 appearances. He started the 2023-24 season out with a 23-point showing in only 29 minutes of action against the Portland Trail Blazers. If this game stays any closer, he’ll get more than the run necessary to go over this number.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kawhi Leonard Over 24.5 Points +100 at DraftKings
Jamal Murray Player Prop
The Denver Nuggets will take on the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. The Marcus Smart era got off to a shaky start on Wednesday as the Grizz suffered a seven-point loss to the Pelicans, but I have faith that this unit will bounce back. Having Smart on the floor gives Memphis a defensive advantage against most guards, and that’s why we’re fading Jamal Murray today — along with some other reasons.
Murray is a solid shooter, but he struggles on the road and can disappear behind Nikola Jokic. Murray’s game hinges on mid-range and 3-point makes, which will be more difficult than usual given the likely matchup with Smart. The two haven’t met often, but their most recent meeting, which came early in the 2022-23 season, saw Murray score just 14 on 6-for-17 from the floor and 1-for-5 from long range.
Although Murray is a high-ceiling guy who can torch under bettors in a flurry, I’m still fading him with his points prop trading up at 21.5. He racked up only 21 against the Lakers on Tuesday night on 8-for-13 and 3-for-5 from long range, which are solid stats but not high-volume enough to beat this number. Murray stayed under this number in 38 of his 65 games last year, good for 58.5%. That’s better than the number of -113 (53.1%) at Caesars. If you’re new to Caesars, check out our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for your first bet on the house up to $1,000.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jamal Murray Under 21.5 Points -113 at Caesars
Jrue Holiday Player Prop
The Boston Celtics acquired Jrue Holiday late in the offseason. Although he adds a veteran playmaking presence to their frontcourt, it’ll take some time for him to gel with his new teammates. He racked up just two assists in his Celtics debut, and our NBA betting tools are fading him on the assist markets today.
Holiday draws a tough matchup with the Miami Heat. Although he has fared well against the Heat with the Bucks, this is a very different situation — he now has some ball-dominant teammates in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who will be dishing plenty of assists on their own while creating their own shots.
Our NBA betting tools love this Jrue Holiday under today. You’ll find his assists total set to 6.5 with the under priced at -125 (55.6%) on BetMGM, which is worse than the true odds of -147 (59.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jrue Holiday Under 6.5 Assists -125 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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