Whew. The last time I wrote this column, we had a 1-2 split (2-2 if you tailed me on TikTok) in which all of our wagers either won or lost by the hook. With another loaded slate of NBA action on tap tonight for the Sports Equinox, I’m back with my top picks on the prop markets. So what are today’s best NBA player prop picks? Let’s dive right in. If you’re hungry for more action, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos!
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jaylen Brown & More
Jaylen Brown Player Prop
The Boston Celtics may have added some major help to their rotation in the form of center Kristaps Porzingis and point guard Jrue Holiday, but wing Jaylen Brown still has a major role to play alongside superstar Jayson Tatum. Brown got off to a shaky start this season: he shot a brutal 0-for-4 from beyond the arc in a game that Porzingis took over. However, he quickly bounced back and went 3-for-7 from beyond the arc in his next appearance.
Brown draws a matchup with the Washington Wizards tonight. The Wizards, who are in a deep rebuild, have struggled to stop opposing wings from deep. They have allowed the second-highest conversion rate from beyond the arc (43.3%). When they played Memphis, Shooting guard Desmond Bane shot 4-for-10 (40%) against them while reserve wing David Roddy went 3-for-4 (75%). Their game against Indiana went similarly: Bruce Brown shot 6-for-8 (75%) and Buddy Hield shot 4-for-7 (57.1%).
The books are taking action on Brown’s 3-pointers at just 1.5 with the juice slightly favoring the over in most spots. However, sharp books like Pinnacle list the over at -172 while a not-as-sharp bet365 lists it at -130. The shots have been there for him to go over this number, and while Porzingis was impressive in Boston’s opener, that kind of production feels more like an outlier than the start of a trend. Look for Brown to exploit a defense that lacks the depth required to stop opposing wings from beyond the arc.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 1.5 3-Pointers -130 at bet365
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
Let’s talk about another member of the Boston Celtics: power forward Jayson Tatum. With the Celtics choosing to start Porzingis at the five despite his known flaws as a rebounder, Tatum has had to pick up the slack on the glass. He is averaging 9.5 through two games this year, way up from his career average (7) and slightly up from what he averaged last season (8.8).
The Celtics are a 10-point favorite over the Wizards tonight. Boston isn’t on a back-to-back, but it’s entirely possible that the Celtics get out to an early lead and end up limiting the usage of their superstars. That kind of cuts against our Brown pick, but minutes matter far more for high-volume counting stats.
Our NBA betting tools love this Jayson Tatum under today. You’ll find his rebounds total set to 9.5 — exactly what he has averaged thus far — with the under priced at -105 (51.2%) on BetMGM, which is worse than the true odds of -126 (55.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Under 9.5 Rebounds -105 at BetMGM
C.J. McCollum Player Prop
Let’s wrap up by fading the Golden State Warriors defense. Although the Warriors have lately been known for their gritty defensive play, they struggled mightily without Draymond Green in their first two games. Although they got him back for last night’s game against the Houston Rockets, he played only 21 minutes and may see a similarly small workload now that the Warriors are on the wrong end of a back-to-back.
Golden State’s defensive assignments were quite predictable last night: they hid Stephen Curry on Dillon Brooks, used Andrew Wiggins to lock down Fred VanVleet and put Klay Thompson on Jalen Green. Curry and Thompson coughed up 18 points to their defensive assignments in 13.5 minutes on 54.5% shooting. Unfortunately for Golden State, New Orleans boasts a much deeper offense with Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and C.J. McCollum all posing a threat.
I suspect Golden State will let Curry stick on Herbert Jones, who the Pels are likely to use against him, while using Wiggins on Ingram and Green on Williamson. That leaves Thompson to defend McCollum, which likely won’t go well — Thompson has been a major liability on the defensive end this year. Even if the Warriors adjust their rotation to account for the back-to-back, they don’t have the bandwidth to keep Ingram, Williamson and McCollum in check, and I’m most skeptical of their options in the frontcourt.
NBA Player Prop Pick: C.J. McCollum Over 17.5 Points -120 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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