If you’re a basketball fan, let’s be real — you’re probably watching the Final Four tonight, not the NBA. But that doesn’t mean the NBA isn’t in action tonight, and there are some spots worth exploiting on the betting markets. I’ve found two high-value spots to attack with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium. In today’s article, I’ll lay out my NBA player prop picks for Nikola Jokic and Nicolas Claxton.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Nikola Jokic & More
Nicolas Claxton Player Prop
Nicolas Claxton, one of my favorite NBA player prop betting targets, has a one prop trading with positive expected value (+EV) in our betting model today. You can buy him to stay under 10.5 total rebounds for odds of -113 at Caesars, which is a great bet for tonight’s game against the Detroit Pistons.
While the Pistons have pretty much tapped out of the season, they’re still starting center Jalen Duren. For all their flaws, the Pistons have allowed only the 12th-most rebounds per game to centers this year (15.1) and the 13th-most through the last 15 (15.4). But that number counts production by all centers, not just starters.
The Nets are 9.5-point favorites for today’s game, which isn’t a huge advantage, but it’s meaningful enough that Claxton should split his workload with backup five Day’Ron Sharpe. While Claxton is averaging a steady 9.9 rebounds per game, that number falls to 9.6 when Sharpe is active.
Over his last 15 games alongside Sharpe, Claxton is averaging 10 rebounds but has stayed under the 10.5 in nine, good for a win rate of 60%, far better than the implied odds of -113.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Nicolas Claxton Under 10.5 Rebounds -113 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Nicolas Claxton rebounds live odds page!
Nikola Jokic Player Prop
That’s my pick: let’s turn to one of the best bets I saw on OddsShopper Premium today. When betting NBA player props, I follow a simple routine: I glance at the schedule, the injury report and OddsShopper Premium all before kicking off my research. This Nikola Jokic player prop stood out even before I dug further into the card, so we’re fading the Joker as a scorer against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.
This game is in Denver, and when playing at home, Jokic tends to step back as a scorer. Jokic is averaging 26.5 points per game this year (and 26.4 since the All-Star Break), but that average falls to 26 when he plays at Ball Arena. Jokic has cleared the 28.5 in only 15 of his 39 home games. While the books are certainly hedging a bit with Jamal Murray questionable after missing the last seven games, Jokic is averaging only 28.1 points per game without Murray and
But our tools’ process is far less subjective than my analysis. It indexes the lines from across the market; adjusts for factors such as hold, book sharpness and more; and uses those odds to generate the true odds (a breakeven price) for each wager. When a line is available for longer odds than the true odds, the model recommends we bet on it, as is the case with this Jokic bet today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can do so for 20% off your first month ($39.96) or week ($11.96) with promo code “ISIROIS”. That’s far less expensive than the +EV tools that our competitors are offering, even after the discount ends!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 28.5 Points -105 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, see our Nikola Jokic points live odds page.
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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