Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Dec. 16

Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop

Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most effective interior scorers in the NBA. With Damian Lillard joining him on the Milwaukee Bucks, opposing defenses must adjust to stopping a pair of future Hall of Famers whenever the Bucks take the floor. But with the Bucks on the first leg of a back-to-back set, I’m fading the superstar forward against the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons put up a fight in the paint. They have allowed only 16.7 made shots per game in the restricted area, which ranks 12th, to go with 52.8 points per game in the paint, which ranks 22nd. Those aren’t great numbers, but in a spot in which the Bucks are likely to limit Giannis’ minutes, they’re good enough for me.

Giannis is averaging 32 points per game this year and just dropped a monstrous 64-point game on the Indiana Pacers (we were on his over for that one!). Still, with his points prop trading at an inflated 33.5 — and the juice on the under — I can’t turn this one down. Giannis has only cleared the 33.5 in nine of his 23 games this year. He even failed to do so in his last start against the Pistons, in which he scored a season-low 15 in 21 minutes.

Statistics aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Luka Doncic under today because of the pricing disparity. The +123 (44.8%) at Unibet and BetRivers (and the +120 (45.5%) on DraftKings) for the under 10.5 is worse than the true odds for this wager of +110 (47.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced down at -105 (51.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 10.5 Assists +120 at DraftKings

Donovan Mitchell Player Prop

The Cleveland Cavaliers won’t have point guard Darius Garland for the foreseeable future, which means Donovan Mitchell will take over for him. Without Garland this year, Mitchell averages 33.3 points and four assists per game, but without him last year, Mitchell averaged 34.4 points and 7.2 assists.

The downtick in Mitchell’s assist production without Garland feels more like some noise than a signal. Mitchell tallied at least six assists in all but three of his games without Garland last year but is yet to do so this year.

Matchups are part of the issue: two of Mitchell’s games without Garland came against average or above-average defenses in terms of assists allowed per game to point guards.

Mitchell draws a matchup with a putrid Atlanta Hawks defense tonight that has coughed up the second-most assists per game (28.8) and the second-most assists per game to point guards (9.9). Mitchell should feast as a passer, especially with Atlanta on the wrong end of a back-to-back set.