Yet another 2-1 performance last night advances this column to 24-6 over the last two weeks, good for an absurd 80% win rate. I can’t promise returns of this caliber for the entire NBA season, but let’s hope we keep making money tonight with our NBA player prop picks. I’ve got action down on Evan Mobley, Kyle Lowry and Malik Beasley in this spot. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Evan Mobley & More
Malik Beasley Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks have struggled to stop shooting guards this season, and we saw Malik Beasley capitalize on their struggles in late October. Beasley cruised to an 18-point showing, which now ranks as his fifth-best as a member of the Milwaukee Bucks, on shooting splits of 50/40/50. Although we probably want him to do better from the charity stripe, Beasley’s steady conversion rates from the floor make him a juicy target in this spot against Atlanta’s non-existent defense.
Atlanta’s struggles against shooting guards are notable — they lead the NBA in points allowed per game to the position (25.4). Recent lowlights include a 40-point showing from Donovan Mitchell and a 24-point showing from Buddy Hield. With Atlanta having to contend with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, it’ll be easy for them to forget about Beasley again, and I expect plenty of open looks for the Milwaukee guard. It helps that the Hawks rank third in pace.
Beasley isn’t the highest-usage player in Milwaukee, but he is no stranger to big nights. Still, he is averaging a steady 11.6 points in 19 games, which would be enough to cash the over, but we’re laddering this one because of the potential for a higher-upside showing — Beasley has gone for 15-plus points in seven of his 19 starts. With the Bucks off until next Tuesday, I expect to see their starting lineup for much of Saturday’s action, which should help Beasley stuff the stat sheet.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Malik Beasley Over 11.5 Points -120 at DraftKings
Kyle Lowry Player Prop
The Miami Heat will take on the fast-paced Indiana Pacers tonight, but we’re getting action down on an under for this one. Bam Adebayo is out, but Jimmy Butler is probable, which should reduce Miami’s reliance on Lowry as a ball-handler. Lowry is averaging 4.4 assists this year and only 4.2 when Butler plays.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Kyle Lowry under today because of the pricing disparity. The -115 (53.5%) on PointsBet and the -125 (55.6%) on DraftKings are worse than the true odds for this wager of -135 (57.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Lowry Under 5.5 Assists -115 at PointsBet
Evan Mobley Player Prop
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Evan Mobley will take on the Detroit Pistons tonight. Neither one of these teams is in action again until next Wednesday, and we haven’t seen Cleveland since Thursday, so I expect big minutes from their starting five tonight. That should help Mobley cash this over for us.
We’re backing Mobley to swat some shots tonight. Since entering the NBA, Mobley has averaged 2.8 blocks per game against the Pistons over a nine-game sample, tallying at least two in six of their nine meetings. This year’s Pistons have struggled mightily to finish at the rim, and they’re allowing 6.5 blocks per game (fourth-most) and 4.1 blocks per game to centers (most).
Mobley is averaging 1.8 blocks per game this year, which puts him on pace for a career-high performance in the metric. Mobley began the year on a six-game streak with multiple blocks, and, while he has since cooled off a bit, he just swatted seven shots against the Hawks, one short of his career record. Mobley has multiple blocks in 10 of his 19 appearances this year as well.
You’ll find Mobley listed at odds of -130 to record multiple blocks at ESPNBet tonight. Every other book has a shorter price, with Caesars at -139, BetMGM at -140 and PointsBet at -145. I think we’re getting more than enough value to warrant a play here, and sprinkling on Mobley to tally three-plus blocks for +220 at DraftKings is a good idea, too.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Blocks -130 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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