Oof. We went 1-2 yesterday, winning our Joel Embiid under but losing our Kyle Lowry assists ladder (he did get hurt, but three assists in 21 minutes isn’t going to cut it) and our Domantas Sabonis over. That brings my full NBA cards to a still-good 155-122-6 (+40.2u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Paolo Banchero, Jamal Murray and Alex Caruso. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Paolo Banchero & More
Paolo Banchero Player Prop
The Orlando Magic will visit the Indiana Pacers tonight. Neither squad has seen the floor since Thursday, and neither will need to take the floor again until Tuesday. That means we can expect a healthy dose of minutes for the starters on both sides. I’m locking in this over for Paolo Banchero as a result.
The Pacers have struggled to defend the paint all year, and Banchero can score effectively there. On a per-game basis, the Pacers have allowed the most points in the paint (61.7), the second-most made shots in the restricted area (21) and the third-most made shots in the non-restricted paint (9.9).
Banchero doesn’t lead the Magic in shots taken in the paint per game — that honor belongs to Franz Wagner — but the second-year star is a close second. Wagner averages 10.7 shots in those zones per game versus Banchero’s 9.
However, Banchero’s usage has been trending up substantially. Over the last seven games, he ranks fourth in the metric among the 340 players who averaged 30 minutes per game over that stretch at 33.2%. That usage corresponds to an average of 24.1 points per game for him.
You’ll find Banchero priced at odds of -115 to go over the 23.5 at SuperBook — and, if you don’t have access to that book, at odds of -120 to do the same thing at DraftKings. Banchero tallied exactly 24 points in his only game against the Pacers this year, and he only needed 27 minutes to get there. The prices on Banchero’s alt lines aren’t appealing enough for me to get excited about a ladder, but I’m comfortable wagering a unit on the standard line at anything of -125 or better.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Paolo Banchero Over 23.5 Points -115 at SuperBook
Jamal Murray Player Prop
Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets beat the Brooklyn Nets last night in a surprisingly competitive contest. Murray and Nikola Jokic both had to play 34 minutes. Denver now draws a road matchup against the Charlotte Hornets before flying back to Denver to host the Golden State Warriors early on Christmas afternoon. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Nuggets, and with Murray averaging just 19.3 points per game this year (and 10 when playing without rest), I can’t stay away from this under — and OddsShopper Premium can’t stay away, either.
Scheduling and splits aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Jamal Murray under today since there is a pricing disparity. The under 22.5 is priced at only -118 (54.1%) at FanDuel, which is worse than the true odds of -129 (56.3%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 21.5 priced down at -126 (55.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jamal Murray Under 22.5 Points -118 at FanDuel
Alex Caruso Player Prop
The Chicago Bulls will host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Cavs have already ruled out Donovan Mitchell, Ty Jerome and Darius Garland, which leaves with quite shorthanded in the backcourt. Two-way rookie Craig Porter Jr. is expected to start at point guard, and, well, Caris LeVert, Max Strus and Sam Merrill are the only other available guards.
The Cavs just don’t have capable ball-handlers available tonight. Their three leaders in passes made, Garland, Mitchell and Evan Mobley are all out. They’ll have to lean on an undrafted rookie and several guys who aren’t known for their passing to distribute the rock. That will create steal opportunities that I expect Alex Caruso to exploit.
The Cavaliers already rank 20th in steals allowed per game (7.9). They rank 29th to point guards (2.2) as well. Caruso may play the two with Coby White at the one, but the high-motor veteran is averaging 1.3 steals per game this year on just 23.1 minutes per game, and with Zach LaVine sidelined, he should see extra run — and extra chances to beat Cleveland’s shaky backcourt.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Alex Caruso Over 1.5 Steals +140 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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