Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Dec. 30

Julius Randle Player Prop

The New York Knicks just got beat by the Orlando Magic last night, but they’ll get a chance to bounce back tonight against the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers have been a mainstay of this column due to their defensive woes in the paint — on a per-game basis, Indiana has allowed the most made shots in the restricted area (21.4), the second-most made shots in the non-restricted paint (9.7) and the most overall points in the paint (62.1).

No one stands to benefit more from Indiana’s struggles than power forward Julius Randle. Although he has struggled when playing without rest this year, Randle leads the Knicks in shots taken in the restricted area (5.6) and ranks second in shots taken in the non-restricted paint (5.4). That comes out to 61.1% of his overall shot attempts. Although Randle’s high-usage, ball-hogging nature are often a liability, they shouldn’t be against the Pacers.

Indiana’s poor interior defensive play corresponds to massive production allowed to power forwards. The Pacers have coughed up the most points per game to the position on the year (29.2) and through the last 15 games (32). This unit allowed Giannis Antetokounmpo to score 64 and Anthony Davis to score 41. Randle isn’t as good as them, but he doesn’t have to be.

Davis has lined up against Rudy Gobert 19 times. Davis has surpassed 13 boards just three times while averaging 9.6 per game. Over seven games against Gobert with the Lakers, Davis has beaten the 13 once while averaging 8.1 boards per game.

Scheduling and matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Anthony Davis under today because of the market inefficiency. The under 12.5 is priced at only +100 (50%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -107 (51.7%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 12.5 priced down at -123 (55.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Davis Under 12.5 Rebounds +100 at DraftKings

Tyrese Maxey Player Prop

The Philadelphia 76ers just beat the Houston Rockets last night without Joel Embiid. Point guard Tyrese Maxey was a crucial part of the win, as he scored a team-high 42 points. His point total is now trading at 28.5 ahead of tonight’s game against the Chicago Bulls, which is more than a bit too high for this spot.

Chicago is a tough team for point guards to go off against. For one, they rank 30th in pace, which minimizes the chances their opponents get to exploit them. That’s helped them allow the fewest points per game to point guards this year (20.3) and through the last 15 games (20.6).

Although Maxey will benefit from substantially higher usage than normal with Embiid sidelined, Maxey has cleared the 28.5 just twice in Embiid’s five absences this year. He did so in five of 10 last year. Notably, that 10-game sample included a 26-point showing against the Bulls in which solid shooting splits of 53/71/83 weren’t enough to get him over.