Let’s go! We scored another 3-0 sweep last night, hitting on our Kristaps Porzingis, Nikola Jokic and Cameron Johnson wagers. We’re down to just one NBA game tonight — the NBA in-season tournament final — so don’t go overboard with too much exposure to one game. My full NBA cards are up to 104-83-3 (+27u) on the year, and if you want access to them in real time, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Tonight, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Anthony Davis and Myles Turner. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Davis & More
Anthony Davis Player Prop
The Los Angeles Lakers take on the Indiana Pacers tonight, and, as I’ve emphasized all season: the Pacers can’t stop opposing bigs in the paint. Indiana is allowing the most points in the paint per game (62.5) and the most made shots per game in the restricted area (21.9). That corresponds to the second-most points allowed per game to both centers (25.4) and power forwards (27.6).
Anthony Davis is the best-positioned member of the Lakers to exploit the Pacers’ flaws. He is tied with LeBron James for the most made shots per game in the restricted area (5.4) but leads him in attempts (8 to 7). The Pacers also allow the fourth-most made shots per game in the non-restricted paint, where Davis leads the Lakers in both makes (2.6) and attempts (5.2).
Of course, the books know these things, so his points total is trading at 26.5, above his season average (22.7). But because this is functionally a playoff game and there is $500,000 on the line for both players and coaches, Davis should get some extra minutes.
I’m laddering this NBA player prop to 40 through both 30 and 35. Davis has reached the 30-point mark in just five of 22 starts this year, but he has cleared the 26.5 in 11 starts, so the base of our ladder feels safe at odds of -120 on ESPNBet. Last year saw Davis clear the 30-point mark 20 times over 56 regular-season starts. He cleared the 35 in 13 starts and the 40 in three. While there is a chance that LeBron comes out hot, hurting Davis’ volume, I trust Davis to bounce back after tallying his third-fewest field goal attempts on the year against the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Davis Over 26.5 Points -120 at ESPNBet
Myles Turner Player Prop
Let’s turn to one of the top picks according to OddsShopper Premium. It wants action on several unders, including one for Myles Turner. I chose to tail this one because it gives us a slight bit of correlation with the pick above — if Davis goes off, Turner may get into foul trouble, limiting his minutes while helping Davis get to the charity stripe. Further, Turner is averaging 26.5 points, rebounds and assists per game, so he can afford to have an above-average night without preventing us from cashing.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Myles Turner under today entirely because of the pricing disparity. The +100 (50%) on BetMGM is worse than the true odds for this wager of -115 (53.5%) and the posted odds of -129 (56.3%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book. OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Myles Turner Under 28.5 PRA +100 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
