After a disappointing 1-2 night that saw only our Tyrese Maxey under hit, I’m back with NBA player prop picks for Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero and Jonathan Isaac. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Edwards & More
Anthony Edwards Player Prop
The Brooklyn Nets have the unenviable task of trying to defend Anthony Edwards tonight. The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night, and although Ant played 38 minutes in that one, another heavy workload is likely in store for him. Edwards is averaging 36.5 minutes per game without rest, which he has parlayed into 27 points per game.
The Nets have struggled against opposing shooting guards of late. Over the last seven games, they have coughed the most points per game to the position (31). They have also allowed the most over the last 15 (26.6). Much of that production has come from beyond the arc, as the Nets have allowed the most 3’s per game to the position through those samples. Ant isn’t the highest-volume perimeter shooter, but he can still go off.
I’m buying Ant to go over the 26.5 (-105 at Hard Rock) and to clear the 30 (+165 at FanDuel). Edwards is averaging 26.3 points per game on the year (26.2 at home), clearing the 27-point mark in 29 of his 53 appearances (54.7%) and the 30 in 21 (39.6%).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 Points -105 at Hard Rock
Paolo Banchero Player Prop
Today’s game between the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons will probably not be competitive. The Magic opened as 7-point favorites and have been bid up by a point. But with the Magic having to play again tomorrow, OddsShopper Premium and I agree that there’s an edge on the player prop markets for Paolo Banchero today, and our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Paolo Banchero under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 6.5 assists is priced at -115 (53.5%) at Fanatics, which is worse than the true odds of -126 (55.8%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 6.5 for -142 (58.6%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Paolo Banchero Under 6.5 Assists -115 at Fanatics
Jonathan Isaac Player Prop
We’re going back to the Magic-Pistons well for this NBA player prop pick. Give me Jonathan Isaac to stuff the stat sheet defensively — I’m playing him to record over 1.5 steals and blocks for -160 at DraftKings.
The Pistons are jaw-droppingly inefficient, and Isaac should see extra minutes if this one gets out of hand early, especially with the Magic back in action tomorrow.
Isaac is averaging 1.9 steals and blocks per game this year, going over the 1.5 in 22 of his 38 games (57.9%). But that’s not value relative to the implied odds of the -160 — to find that edge, we must filter out losses.
In Orlando’s wins, Isaac is averaging 2.2 steals and blocks per game, tallying two or more in 16 of 24 (66.7%). This sample includes a two-steal-and-block game versus Detroit earlier in the year.
Lastly, let’s revisit a point I made earlier — Orlando is on the front end of a back-to-back. When Isaac is available for these games (a six-game sample), he is averaging 2.2 steals and blocks per game, going over the 1.5 in four of six (66.7%). I trust him to get the job done against a Pistons team that gives up the fourth-most blocks (6.1) and the most steals (8.8) per game.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Isaac Over 1.5 Steals & Blocks -160 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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