We got back to winning with Friday’s 2-1 performance, nailing unders for Kyle Kuzma and Clint Capela but losing one for Paolo Banchero. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Tyrese Maxey, Devin Vassell and Harrison Barnes. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards ticked up to 273-263-16 (+29.9u) on the season last night. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Tyrese Maxey & More
Tyrese Maxey Player Prop
Sometimes less is more. That’s the case with Tyrese Maxey, who, when Joel Embiid sits, averages 3.7 more field goal attempts per game, but, due to inefficient shooting, averages only two extra points per game. Maxey’s shooting splits have dipped from 46/40/89 to 43/33/81 when he plays without Embiid this season. Although we can expect Maxey to again struggle with efficiency in this spot, the books are taking action on his points prop at 31.5 — a number he has cleared in just nine of 43 appearances this year.
The Brooklyn Nets may not be that great, but they’re figuring some stuff out on defense. Sure, this year they rank 27th in points per game allowed to point guards (26.5), and sure, they rank a not-good 18th in defensive efficiency (116.2). Over the last seven games, Brooklyn ranks 16th (25.4) and 13th (114.4), respectively. With Ben Simmons probable, their backcourt defense should get a boost, too.
The 31.5 where you’ll find Maxey’s points prop on bet365 is just too high. Maxey scored only 25 points against the Nets earlier in the year despite shooting 40/55/100. While his volume should increase, everything we’ve seen from him without Embiid suggests his efficiency should dip significantly. The Nets haven’t let a point guard cross the 32-point mark since Donovan Mitchell erupted for 45 in Paris.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 31.5 Points -120 at bet365
Devin Vassell Player Prop
The San Antonio Spurs draw an unenviable home matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Cavs had already turned a corner before getting Evan Mobley and Darius Garland back, so with those two now back in the mix, the Cavs could be scary down the stretch. Jarrett Allen may sit this one out with his questionable tag, but I still have faith in Cleveland’s defense. OddsShopper Premium has identified an edge on the assist market for Devin Vassell. The model has an ROI of 12% for assist props over at Fanatics — for more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Devin Vassell under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 4.5 is priced at only -120 (54.6%) at Fanatics — which is worse than the true odds of -133 (57.1%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over under 4.5 for -148 (59.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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Skeptical of our market-based model’s reasoning? Some other factors point to value here: Cleveland ranks second in assists allowed per game (24.2) and fourth versus shooting guards (4.5), where Vassell spends 81% of his minutes.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Devin Vassell Under 4.5 Assists -120 at Fanatics
Harrison Barnes Player Prop
Few players in the NBA are as hot as Harrison Barnes is right now. The veteran wing is shooting 50/42/81 over his last six games on 16.2 field goal attempts, good for 22.3 points per game. However, Barnes is shooting just 48/40/81 on the year and 46/38/81 for his career. He is also averaging 8.7 field goal attempts and 12.1 points per game this season. I suspect his recent uptick in usage isn’t a trend we can expect to continue.
Barnes and the Sacramento Kings just beat the Indiana Pacers last night. Although it was an 11-point win, Sacramento still needed to get 37 minutes out of 31-year-old Barnes. Barnes averages only 28.7 minutes per game when playing in the wrong end of a back-to-back set, so we can expect to see head coach Mike Brown scale down the veteran’s workload in this spot.
Barnes also draws an unfavorable matchup. The Chicago Bulls may not be a great defensive team, but they’re a slow-paced one. They rank last in pace on the year (96.9) and 23rd over the last seven games (97.7). The Bulls’ defense, while not great, ranks a decent 14th this year (114.7) and 14th (114.9) through the last seven.
The books are overreacting to Barnes’ recent hot streak by jacking his points prop up to 15.5. Barnes has stayed under that number in 13 of his 47 appearances for the Kings this season and in four of his six starts on the second night of back-to-backs. I’m also getting some exposure to the under 13.5 (+110 at DraftKings) — he has stayed under that mark in 17 of his 47 appearances this year as well.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Harrison Barnes Under 15.5 Points -130 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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