Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Saturday, January 13

Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop

The Golden State Warriors just took down the Chicago Bulls last night. They needed to score 140 points. Their stars didn’t play a ton of minutes: Stephen Curry played 35 and Klay Thompson logged 34. The Warriors have been pretty good on back-to-backs this year, sporting a 5-1 record without rest while holding opponents to only 109.4 points per game.

One thing Golden State does well, even without Draymond Green, is protect the rim. You kind of have to squint at the stats a little to see it, though: Golden State ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game over the last 10 (54.5), which isn’t great, but they lead the NBA in field goals allowed per game from the restricted area (13.4). It’s their defense in the non-restricted paint that is the issue: Golden State allows the most field goals per game in that zone (12.2).

Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA’s best interior scorers, but he does much more in the restricted area than outside of it. Giannis takes 11.8 field goals per game in the restricted area — 62.1% of his total field goals — but just 3.1 in the non-restricted paint. Giannis converts 78.4% of his looks in the restricted area but 38.8% from the non-restricted paint.

Boston’s defense has regressed from its peak under now-Rockets coach Ime Udoka, but the Celtics’ main issues are on the perimeter, not in the paint. The Celtics allow the third-fewest field goals in the restricted area (15.3) but the most from above the break (11.2). Sengün takes 41.2% of his shots in the restricted area.

Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Alperen Sengün under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 22.5 is priced at only -110 (52.4%) at ESPNBet — which is worse than the true odds of -119 (54.3%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 22.5 priced down at -138 (58%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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Kyrie Irving Player Prop

Let’s wrap things up by fading Kyrie Irving. The Dallas Mavericks will have to lean on him heavily until Luka Doncic can return to the lineup, and, as a result, Irving’s points prop is trading at a ballooned 32.5 today. That’s a number Irving has cleared in just 10 of his 43 starts for the Mavericks.

Irving has played seven games for the Mavericks that Doncic missed. He averaged 27.6 points per game across those appearances and cleared the 32.5 just twice with a median showing of 25. Irving did just drop a monstrous 44 points on the New York Knicks on Thursday, so it’s a great sell-high spot for us here.

The New Orleans Pelicans are an underrated defensive team. The Pels rank seventh in defensive rating on the season. They’ve gotten better lately, too — over the last seven, New Orleans ranks tied for first (109.5) while playing at the fourth-slowest pace (96.7). I don’t expect much from Irving in this spot as a result.