We keep chugging along in this column, scoring our third undefeated night in a row on non-ladder picks, bringing us to 8-0-1 over the last three days. Along with some non-article picks that you can find on my Twitter or TikTok, last night brought my full NBA cards to 233-218-12 (+29.3u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Collin Sexton and Jaren Jackson Jr. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jaren Jackson Jr. & More
Collin Sexton Player Prop
I’m a hater at heart, and it’s past time for us to start shorting Collin Sexton. Over the last five games, Sexton is averaging an absurd 26 points per game on shooting splits of 58/61/89. Sexton is a career 47/38/84 shooter. So has the 25-year-old suddenly found a new gear, or is he just getting lucky? To me, it’s the latter.
Sexton took over a starting role with the Utah Jazz on December 13. Since then, Sexton has averaged 22.4 points per game, but it’s his recent hot streak inflating those stats. Before the last five games, Sexton was averaging 21.2 points per game on splits of 51/36/89.
Tonight’s road matchup with the Houston Rockets is the perfect spot for Sexton to regress. The Jazz haven’t faced the new-look Rockets yet this season. Houston ranks 12th in defensive rating (112.5) and 23rd in pace (98.5) this year.
The Rockets have also allowed the second-fewest points in the paint per game on the year (45.8) and through the last seven games (41.4), which bodes poorly for Sexton, who takes 58.5 of his shots in the paint (and, frankly, isn’t all that efficient there).
If you’re not sold on buying Sexton to stay under the 19.5 because he has cleared it in his last five games, consider Sexton’s home-away splits. All five of those games were played in Salt Lake City. Outside of Salt Lake, Sexton is averaging only 15.5 points per game on shooting splits of 48/35/88. With a tough defensive opponent that ranks sixth in points allowed per game to shooting guards (21), he should stay under this number barring an electric, outlier showing from beyond the arc.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Collin Sexton Under 19.5 Points -113 at FanDuel
Jaren Jackson Jr. Player Prop
No Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane or Ja Morant today for the Memphis Grizzlies. While that will force Jaren Jackson Jr. to take more shots, the books know this and have adjusted his markets accordingly. Jackson has played two games since those three key teammates all went down. He scored 18 against the Golden State Warriors and then 36 against the Minnesota Timberwolves. With his points total now trading at a bloated 26.5 in some spots, I’m fading him, and OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
The Chicago Bulls are not a good team for betting overs. The Bulls rank 30th in pace (96.8) and 15th in defensive rating on the year (114.6). They rank 24th (97.1) and 12th (114) through the last seven. Meanwhile, they have allowed the fewest points in the paint on the year (44) and through the last seven (42.3).
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Jaren Jackson Jr. under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 26.5 is priced at only -115 (53.6%) at Fanatics — which is worse than the true odds of -124 (55.4%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 25.5 for -114 (53.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 26.5 Points -115 at Fanatics
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has roasted the Minnesota Timberwolves lately, cooking them for 32.8 points per game since the arrival of Rudy Gobert. That number dips every so slightly to 32.7 when both Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns are in the lineup, but the fact remains he has cleared the 31.5 in every contest.
SGA’s recent dominance versus the Timberwolves is improbable. His shooting splits in those four games are 60/25/97, far better than his career rates (49/35/85) and his rates this season (55/32/89). Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense leads the NBA in defensive rating (108.6) and ranks 22nd in pace (98.6), so those high-scoring nights seem more like outliers than sustainable production.
The Wolves have locked down SGA’s best zone: the restricted area. They rank third in shots allowed per game from that zone (15.4), where SGA takes 32.3% of his shots (and makes 72.2%). The Wolves also rank 14th in shots allowed per game from the non-restricted paint (and first in field-goal percentage allowed), where SGA takes another 30.3% of his looks (and makes 51.9%).
With SGA’s points prop trading at 31.5 on FanDuel but 30.5 pretty much everywhere else, I’m locking this one in over there for -113. He is averaging only 31 points per game and has stayed under the 32 in 18 of 22 games, so even though SGA has cleared this number in a slim majority of his starts, I trust Minnesota’s defense and slow pace to limit him. The Wolves rank ninth in points allowed per game to point guards (23.6) and fifth over the last seven (20).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexader Under 31.5 Points -113 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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