Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Saturday, January 27

LaMelo Ball Player Prop

Look, LaMelo Ball is not an efficient shooter. His shot chart tells you that much: his shooting splits of 43/36/87 aren’t impressing anyone, least of all me. However, his last few games have gone even poorly than usual — he is shooting a truly dreadful 35/17/80 through that stretch. But instead of expecting him to stay cold, we’re buying the dip on him.

When the Hornets dealt Terry Rozier to the Miami Heat, they opened the floodgates for Ball’s scoring. Ball averaged 18.5 points per game with Rozier in the lineup this season. He is averaging 29.3 without him, and that includes two of the last three games we discussed above. His brutal 17-point and 15-point performances still weren’t enough to drop his average without Rozier close to below the 25-point mark.

Before his last two games, Ball had eclipsed the 25-point mark in all nine of his starts without Rozier. He tallied 30-plus in seven of them and 35-plus in two. His shooting splits through that sample (49/44/88) were unsustainably high, but his splits through the last three games are also unsustainably low. Regression comes for us all, and in this case, it should benefit Ball tonight.

Lillard is averaging only 6.7 assists per game on the year. He has stayed under the 7.5 in 27 of 42 games (64.3%). New Orleans has allowed the 10th-fewest assists per game to point guards over the last seven (8.1). Over the last three, they have held Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to five, Kris Dunn to four and Devin Booker to five.

Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Damian Lillard under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 7.5 is priced at only -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings — which is worse than the true odds of -115 (53.5%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 7.5 for -137 (58.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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James Harden Player Prop

In one of tonight’s few games that doesn’t feature a team playing its second game in two days, the Los Angeles Clippers will visit the Boston Celtics. That means it’s a great day to fade James Harden as a passer. Harden averaged just eight assists per game in the playoff series versus Boston last year, surpassing his prop (9.5) just twice. He averaged nine assists per game against them in the regular season and cleared the 9.5 twice.

Boston’s defense has been even stingier against opposing guards this year. On the season, the Celtics rank third in assists allowed per game to point guards (7.8) and second to shooting guards (4.4). Over the last 15, they rank 12th to point guards (8.5) and sixth to shooting guards (4.5). With Ivica Zubac out, Harden has been playing the two more often as Russell Westbrook gets more run.

Harden has been feasting as a passer lately, averaging 10.2 assists per game since Christmas. However, he played the majority of those games at home. Harden is averaging only 8.2 assists per game on the road this year, and he only dished out nine in a home game versus the Boston Celtics right before Christmas. Overall, Harden has stayed under this number in 13 of 18 road starts (72.2%).