After a strong 9-3 showing to start the week, Friday’s 1-2 performance dropped us to 9-5. Still, because of some non-article picks you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards moved to 256-241-12 (+30.5u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for James Harden, LaMelo Ball and Damian Lillard. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for James Harden & More
LaMelo Ball Player Prop
Look, LaMelo Ball is not an efficient shooter. His shot chart tells you that much: his shooting splits of 43/36/87 aren’t impressing anyone, least of all me. However, his last few games have gone even poorly than usual — he is shooting a truly dreadful 35/17/80 through that stretch. But instead of expecting him to stay cold, we’re buying the dip on him.
When the Hornets dealt Terry Rozier to the Miami Heat, they opened the floodgates for Ball’s scoring. Ball averaged 18.5 points per game with Rozier in the lineup this season. He is averaging 29.3 without him, and that includes two of the last three games we discussed above. His brutal 17-point and 15-point performances still weren’t enough to drop his average without Rozier close to below the 25-point mark.
Before his last two games, Ball had eclipsed the 25-point mark in all nine of his starts without Rozier. He tallied 30-plus in seven of them and 35-plus in two. His shooting splits through that sample (49/44/88) were unsustainably high, but his splits through the last three games are also unsustainably low. Regression comes for us all, and in this case, it should benefit Ball tonight.
Tonight’s matchup with the Utah Jazz is a perfect get-right spot for Ball. The Jazz are allowing the sixth-most points per game to point guards over the last 15 games (28) and the fourth-most over the last seven (31.7). This corresponds to an uptick in their pace: Utah ranks as the fastest team over the last 15 (102.4) and the last seven (103).
You’ll find Ball’s points prop trading at 25.5 across the market. That’s way down from the 27.5 it was trading at right after the Rozier trade. Instead of buying that number, I bought the 25+ (-135 at FanDuel) for a slightly steeper price. I paired it with the 30+ (+200 at FanDuel) and 35+ (+550 at FanDuel) because most other books are offering those alt lines at far shorter odds.
NBA Player Prop Pick: LaMelo Ball 25+ Points -135 at FanDuel
Damian Lillard Player Prop
If you read yesterday’s column, you saw we cashed Damian Lillard under 6.5 assists. He tallied three. Despite the poor showing, the books have increased his assists prop to 7.5 for tonight’s game versus the New Orleans Pelicans. While the Pelicans are faster and less solid defensively than last night’s opponent, the Cleveland Cavaliers, we’re still fading Lillard in the assists column. OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
Lillard is averaging only 6.7 assists per game on the year. He has stayed under the 7.5 in 27 of 42 games (64.3%). New Orleans has allowed the 10th-fewest assists per game to point guards over the last seven (8.1). Over the last three, they have held Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to five, Kris Dunn to four and Devin Booker to five.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Damian Lillard under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 7.5 is priced at only -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings — which is worse than the true odds of -115 (53.5%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 7.5 for -137 (58.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Damian Lillard Under 7.5 Assists -105 DraftKings
James Harden Player Prop
In one of tonight’s few games that doesn’t feature a team playing its second game in two days, the Los Angeles Clippers will visit the Boston Celtics. That means it’s a great day to fade James Harden as a passer. Harden averaged just eight assists per game in the playoff series versus Boston last year, surpassing his prop (9.5) just twice. He averaged nine assists per game against them in the regular season and cleared the 9.5 twice.
Boston’s defense has been even stingier against opposing guards this year. On the season, the Celtics rank third in assists allowed per game to point guards (7.8) and second to shooting guards (4.4). Over the last 15, they rank 12th to point guards (8.5) and sixth to shooting guards (4.5). With Ivica Zubac out, Harden has been playing the two more often as Russell Westbrook gets more run.
Harden has been feasting as a passer lately, averaging 10.2 assists per game since Christmas. However, he played the majority of those games at home. Harden is averaging only 8.2 assists per game on the road this year, and he only dished out nine in a home game versus the Boston Celtics right before Christmas. Overall, Harden has stayed under this number in 13 of 18 road starts (72.2%).
The under 9.5 is just too good of a deal to pass up at -125 on bet365. You’ll find this same prop trading for -149 at Pinnacle, so we’re getting just under four percentage points of edge on the sharp book. OddsShopper Premium also estimates the true odds for this bet to bet -127, which isn’t a ton of edge, but it’s more than enough for me to pounce on a number that will likely disappear well before tip.
NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 9.5 Assists -125 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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