Yesterday’s article went an encouraging 2-1, cashing unders for Jusuf Nurkic and Alperen Sengün but losing an over for Jalen Johnson. My full NBA cards are now 188-169-10 (+29.5u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Jayson Tatum, Alperen Sengün and Jrue Holiday. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jayson Tatum & More
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
The Boston Celtics will take on the Indiana Pacers tonight. Both teams played last night, with the Pacers beating up the Atlanta Hawks and the Celtics beating up the Utah Jazz. Jayson Tatum stands to benefit from the matchup against Indiana’s defense, which can’t do much to stop high-scoring players in the paint.
Tatum is also averaging an absurd 34 points when playing without rest this year over a three-game sample. His usage rate spikes by a full two percent when the Celtics are on the wrong end of a back-to-back set.
Tatum’s shot profile points to value here, too. He leads the Celtics in field goals made (4.1) and attempted (5.8) in the restricted area on a solid 70.4% conversion rate. He also ranks second on the team in drives per game (8.6), behind only Jaylen Brown, but still averages more points per drive than him at 7.4, largely because of his ability to get to the charity stripe.
Since 2021-22, Jayson Tatum has owned the Pacers. He is averaging 31.1 points per game against them over a nine-game sample that includes three performances with 30-plus points. He toasted the Pacers for 30 and 32 points earlier this year.
You’ll find Tatum priced at -115 to go over the 27.5 at ESPNBet, which he has done in seven of his last nine against the Pacers, in nine of his 16 road games this year and in two of his three games played without rest. I’m laddering this one to 33.5 (+220 at ESPNBet) through 31.5 (+165 at ESPNBet) and 29.5 (+125 at ESPNBet) to capitalize on the high upside Tatum carries tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points -115 at ESPNBet
Jrue Holiday Player Prop
We’ve got an over for Tatum, but we’re playing an under for Jrue Holiday in tonight’s Pacers-Celtics battle. Despite Indiana’s defensive woes and fast pace, the Pacers have surrendered remarkably few assists to point guards this year. Indiana ranks seventh in assists allowed per game to the position this year (8.1) and second over the last seven games (6.4). Holiday dished four and three assists in his prior games against the Pacers. With this matchup on deck for him, I’ve got to have action on his assists under, and OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
Holiday is no longer a high-volume passer. When Holiday plays alongside Tatum and Porzingis, he averages 4.6 assists per game. He ranks second in Boston in potential assists (8.3), down from the 13.8 per game he averaged in Milwaukee.
Stats and matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Jrue Holiday under today because of the market inefficiency. The under 4.5 is priced at only -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -113 (53.1%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 4.5 priced down at -127 (56%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jrue Holiday Under 6.5 Assists -105 at DraftKings
Alperen Sengün Player Prop
The Houston Rockets will take on the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The Rockets just got beat up by the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, while the Bucks nearly lost to the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday. The Bucks.
Milwaukee’s defense, which couldn’t stop opposing perimeter shooters earlier in the year, now can’t seem to stop interior scorers. Over the last 10 games, the Bucks have allowed the most points in the paint (61.4).
Opposing centers have feasted against the Bucks lately. While Milwaukee ranks 18th in points per game allowed to centers this year (22.8), the club ranks 27th over the last 15 (26.4) and 28th over the last seven (27.1).
The recent box scores demonstrate how much the Bucks have struggled lately. Victor Wembanyama scored 27 in 26 minutes on Thursday. Jarrett Allen erupted for 30 in 40 last Friday. Even Moritz Wagner erupted for 21 in 27 a few days before Christmas.
You’ll find Sengün priced at odds of -125 to go over the 22.5 at FanDuel. With him averaging 21.5 points per game, that price may seem like a fair one, but a few splits suggest that it’s slightly inefficient. For one, Sengün is averaging an absurd 27.4 points per game when the Rockets play without rest over a five-game sample, clearing the over four times. For another, Sengün is averaging 25.4 when Dillon Brooks sits over another five-game sample, also clearing the over four times. I’m wagering enough on this one to secure a full-unit profit.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Alperen Sengün Over 22.5 Points -125 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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