The NBA is offering up a solid nine-game slate this evening, including a nationally televised battle between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Jonathan Kuminga, Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson Jr. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Miles Bridges & More
Jonathan Kuminga Player Prop
The Los Angeles Lakers will do battle with the Golden State Warriors this evening. Recently, the Lakers have just given up trying to defend the rim. Since the All-Star break, They’re coughing up the fourth-most points in the paint per game (52.9) while allowing the third-highest conversion rate in the restricted area (73.1%).
Los Angeles’ defensive breakdowns have led to several high-scoring games from bigs recently. Naz Reid dropped 25 last Sunday. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 last Friday, too. Jonathan Kuminga is the next player to target against Los Angeles’ vulnerable defense — he ranks 17th in points scored in the paint per game since the All-Star break (12.7).
Kuminga was held to only 12 points in 24 minutes when he last played the Lakers, but he scored 22 in 43 in the meeting before that one. With his high shot volume in the paint and both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green playing banged-up, I’m excited about backing Kuminga tonight.
The budding star’s point prop is trading at 18.5 in most spots. DraftKings has the over priced at +100 while Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the same bet for odds of -102. I bought the over 18.5 and laddered this one up to 25+ (+350 at DraftKings) in hopes of a monstrous showing from Kuminga at the rim.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Over 18.5 Points +100 at DraftKings
Miles Bridges Player Prop
The Charlotte Hornets will visit the Philadelphia 76ers in a tough scheduling spot — they’re coming off an 11-point loss to the Phoenix Suns on Friday. Miles Bridges logged 38 minutes in the loss, and we’re going to fade him today on the rebounding market. He is averaging 7.6 boards per game on the year, but his rebounding prop is trading at 8.5.
OddsShopper Premium also loves this under for Bridges today, and, from the beginning of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip. I won’t give too much away, but I recommend reading about the sportsbooks it found easiest to beat.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Miles Bridges under today due to a glaring market inefficiency. The under 8.5 rebounds will cost you -115 (53.5%) at Fanatics, which is a better number than the true odds of -131 (56.7%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 8.5 for -154 (60.6%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Miles Bridges Under 8.5 Rebounds -115 at Fanatics
Jaren Jackson Jr. Player Prop
The Memphis Grizzlies are a hard team to handicap most nights because of the injury uncertainty that surrounds just about their entire roster. Tonight’s game is extra difficult because Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable while Desmond Bane, who hasn’t played in months, is questionable but is also expected to make his return.
While I’m unsure about whether Jackson will play, Bane is almost certainly playing, which would cut into Jackson’s usage. His points prop is trading at 23.5 for this one, above his season average (22.4), his average in March (22.3) and his average when playing alongside Bane (20.6). I don’t understand why this prop is trading at such a high number.
Jackson takes on the stingy Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City ranks fifth in defensive rating this year (111.5) and ranks seventh since the All-Star break (109.3). He has faced them twice already this season and finished with point totals of 11 and 16. The Grizzlies got stomped in both contests and JJJ saw less than 30 minutes of playing time as a result. A similar outcome could be in store today — OKC is a 10.5-point road favorite.
This bet could easily end up voiding — Jackson has missed his last two games with various injuries, after all. But if he plays, it’ll be very difficult for him to clear the 23.5, so we’re buying the under for odds of -115 at bet365. As with the Kuminga and Bridges props, we’re beating the number available at Pinnacle for this one (-132).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 23.5 Points -115 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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