After a frustrating 0-2-1 showing on Friday that saw Fred VanVleet bust his under late and Luguentz Dort miss his over by a point, I’m looking to bounce back. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Bradley Beal, Nicolas Claxton and Coby White. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +24.7u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Bradley Beal & More
Bradley Beal Player Prop
The Boston Celtics owned Bradley Beal over his last five appearances against the club — at least from an efficiency perspective. Although Beal averaged 22.8 points per game against them, his shooting splits (38/19/96) weren’t great, which bodes poorly now that he finds himself playing alongside Kevin Durant in a lower-volume role. Beal also had a median point total of 19 through that five-game sample.
Still, with Devin Booker sidelined, Beal is averaging 21.3 points per game over a seven-game sample. So why are we fading him in this spot? I’m glad you asked.
We’re fading Beal because of Boston’s strong defensive play. The Celtics have allowed the third-fewest points per game to point guards over the last 15 games (20.4). They rank second in defensive rating on the year (110.3) and fourth over the last 15 (109.2). With Boston also playing at a below-average pace, Beal should get even fewer opportunities than usual to go over this mark.
Beal’s game also relies upon his ability to get to the rim for easy buckets, as 2.7 (37.5%) of his made field goals per game came in the restricted area. Beal may struggle to reproduce that against a Celtics defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest made field goals per game in the restricted area (15.4) on the third-lowest conversion rate (62.9%). Beal may need to rely on his 3-point shot in this one, which, at least in recent games against Boston, hasn’t gone well for him.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Bradley Beal Under 18.5 Points -115 at Fanatics
Coby White Player Prop
Coby White and the Chicago Bulls will visit the Los Angeles Clippers late on Saturday afternoon. The Clippers have a lengthy injury report — Russell Westbrook remains out, and Paul George (questionable), Kawhi Leonard (questionable) and James Harden (questionable) could all miss this one. Still, it’s an attractive spot to fade White on at least one NBA player prop market.
OddsShopper Premium loves this under for White today, and, from the beginning of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip. I won’t give too much away, but I recommend reading about the sportsbooks it found easiest to beat.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Coby White under today due to an obvious market inefficiency. The under 4.5 rebounds will cost you +123 (44.8%) at BetRivers and SugarHouse, which is a better number than the true odds of +105 (48.8%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 4.5 for -108 (51.9%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Coby White Under 4.5 Rebounds +123 at BetRivers
Nicolas Claxton Player Prop
Let’s wrap up today’s NBA player prop card with an over for center Nicolas Claxton. It’s a bit risky because the Brooklyn Nets are on the front leg of a back-to-back set and Claxton’s backup, Day’Ron Sharpe, will return from a lengthy absence, but the matchup against the Charlotte Hornets is a bit too good for me to pass up.
Claxton is averaging 2.8 steals and blocks per game this season, which dips slightly to 2.6 when Sharpe is active, but he still usually produces more than what his total of 2.5 on the steals and blocks market suggests he should. Claxton has recorded at least three steals and blocks in 32 of his 53 appearances, good for a win rate of 60.4%.
Claxton now gets to take on a talent-poor Hornets team. Charlotte has been flustered by opposing bigs of late: Kyle Kuzma and Richaun Holmes combined for five steals and blocks on Friday. Jakob Poeltl (who got injured early) and Kelly Olynyk racked up five last Sunday. Even Mo Bamba got three last Friday. Finally, Brook Lopez averaged 3.5 steals and blocks per game versus Charlotte over a two-game set in late February.
The Hornets are also playing their second game in two days in this spot. The last time Charlotte played without rest, Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga racked up a combined eight steals and blocks. Look for Claxton to capitalize against Charlotte’s struggling, trade-and-injury-depleted roster.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Nicolas Claxton Over 2.5 Steals and Blocks -105 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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