What a performance — we scored a 2-0 sweep last night, cashing tickets for Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton and bringing us to a very profitable 7-3 on the week. Today, we’ve got the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Dallas Mavericks early and the Boston Celtics at the Cleveland Cavaliers late. I’ve found two NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools for today’s action, so, let’s dive straight into my NBA player prop picks for Luguentz Dort and Derrick White. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Derrick White & More
Luguentz Dort Player Prop
The Thunder have made it clear that they’re trusting Luguentz Dort to shut down Luka Doncic. He’s kept the young superstar under 30 points in back-to-back games, racking up three steals and no blocks in the process.
Those are relatively low defensive numbers for him: Dort averaged 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks per game in the regular season but has been averaging only one steal and no blocks per game in the postseason.
Dort should increase his output as the playoffs roll on. While the Mavs rank fourth-best in turnovers allowed per game this year (12.5) — and Dort notched a single steal in four regular-season starts against them — the playoffs are a different beast.
Further, the Thunder ranked second in deflections in the regular season (16.2), and Dort averaged 0.8 loose balls recovered per game, recovering a whopping 65.7% of them defensively.
The complete lack of blocks for Dort is a bit of a concern, but his 3.7 personal fouls per game (and five per game this series) suggest the effort is there. We just need one steal and one swallowed whistle to cash this ticket at odds of +160 at bet365 — I’ll take those odds.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 Steals and Blocks +160 at bet365
For the best price currently available, check out our Luguentz Dort steals and blocks live odds page!
Derrick White Player Prop
Is this the postseason script for the Celtics? Start hot in Game 1, collapse at home in Game 2 as the opposing team makes almost every 3-pointer they attempt, then bounce back to win the series? Who knows, but it could be. Still, I’m fading Derrick White on the points market today. He’s averaging 21 points per game in the postseason, but that’s ballooned by a 38-point Game 4 last series. Without it, he’s averaging 18.2, staying under in three of seven.
White failed to clear the 17-point market against the Cavaliers in three starts. His 25-point showing in Game 1 came on splits of 56/58/NA, well above his overall regular-season splits (46/40/90). Although his Game 2 splits (27/13/75) were awful, I’m not expecting a quick bounce-back — and we’re getting too good of a price to pass up. White’s under costs only +100 at FanDuel, which our NBA +EV betting tools reveal is beating the market for loads of positive expected value (+EV):
The under 17.5 will cost between -120 and -132 at every other public book. Most have the under 16.5 priced between +100 and -117. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 16.5 for -121. We’re getting an absolute steal at FanDuel, but who knows how much longer this bet will be on the board.
The works by calculating the true odds (a breakeven price) of a wager, which, in this case, clock in at -119. It comes to that conclusion by indexing the odds across the sports betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; then using that information to generate those true odds.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Derrick White Under 17.5 Points +100 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, see our Derrick White points live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
