Ugh… We lost our Luka Doncic pick late in Game 2, but we still cashed our P.J. Washington bet, bringing us to 6-2 on the conference finals and 24-10 over the last three weeks. Can we keep our win rate over 70% tonight? I’m hopeful, especially because I’ve found two NBA player props that I like with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools. Let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jaylen Brown & More
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
In regulation of Game 1, Jayson Tatum scored 26 points. He scored 23 in Game 2. But because of overtime, he finished Game 1 with 36 points after going absolutely ballistic in the clutch. While his Game 2 showing wasn’t great, the Celtics didn’t really need him to show out. They might need him to on the road tonight.
Tatum is averaging a dismal 25.2 points per game in the postseason, but remember, his first two series came against defensively efficient and slow-paced teams in the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Pacers are neither of those things; in fact, they’re the opposite.
Tatum averaged 26.9 points per game in the regular season on shooting splits of 47/38/83; in the postseason, he is averaging 25.2 on 44/27/87. However, in regular-season games against the Pacers, he averaged 32.5 points per game on 58/49/71. I expect him to figure things out this series — we should be seeing more of the Tatum we saw in overtime of Game 1.
A few other factors could help Tatum tonight. For one, the Pacers have given up 26 and 40 to Jaylen Brown, and any adjustments to limit him could help free up Tatum. For another, the Celtics are listing Jrue Holiday (questionable) and Luke Kornet (doubtful) on the injury report, possibly requiring Tatum to log an extra minute or two.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points -108 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Jayson Tatum points live odds page!
Jaylen Brown Player Prop
We’re backing Tatum, but we’re fading Jaylen Brown tonight. After his 38 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) in Game 1 and 47 PRA in Game 2, the books have jacked his total up to 36.5, which is a squeeze too high. Brown is averaging 33.9 PRA in the postseason and averaged 32.1 PRA in the regular season.
Our NBA player prop betting model recommends fading Brown’s overall contributions tonight. Although he clocks in at -112 on DraftKings to stay under 36.5 PRA, most other public books have this one trading between -115 and -130. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging a whopping -152 for it, so we know this wager has plenty of positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s NBA +EV betting tools estimate a fair price for this bet is -122, shorter than the odds currently available at DraftKings. The -115 at a few other books has +EV, too, but not as much. Don’t jump on this bet unless you’re beating the -122.
That estimate is called the bet’s true odds (a breakeven price). The tools reach that conclusion by indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and using that information to generate an estimate.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown Under 36.5 PRA -112 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, see our Jaylen Brown PRA live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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