It’s college football Saturday, but let’s not forget about the NBA player prop markets. I have three NBA player prop picks for today’s action, which will feature the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat. I’m most excited about tonight’s Heat-Hawks game, especially with all the opportunities created by injury-related absences. If you’re hungry for more bets, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Trae Young & More
Jalen Suggs Player Prop
We keep coming back to the Milwaukee Bucks with talented 3-point shooters. Not having Damian Lillard around against the Indiana Pacers didn’t improve Milwaukee’s perimeter defense — the Bucks still coughed up 20 3-pointers, including five to point guard Tyrese Haliburton and four to center Myles Turner. So with Lillard questionable for today’s contest, I’m fading Milwaukee’s perimeter defense no matter what.
The Orlando Magic don’t do a ton of work from beyond the arc. Wings Gary Harris and Franz Wagner lead the team in 3-pointers per game with 1.8. Point guard Cole Anthony, who has slid back into more of a reserve role now that Markelle Fultz is healthy, ranks third with 1.5. Then there’s our guy, Jalen Suggs, with 1.4. Importantly, he ranks second in attempts with 4.1 per game. They haven’t started falling yet, but in this matchup, they should — the Bucks cough up the fifth-most 3-pointers per game (14).
You’ll find Suggs’ total for this 3-pointers prop set to 1.5 with the juice stacked on the under, which is fair — Suggs has only beaten this line in three of his eight starts so far. However, Suggs’ average of 1.4 jumps to 1.8 when isolating his home games. He has converted 35% of his 3-pointers at home, too, slightly better than his 30.8% conversion rate on the road. The Bucks are just too generous on the perimeter for someone on Orlando’s roster not to capitalize, and the market is low enough on Suggs in this spot to make him worth targeting. Bet the over +140 at bet365 — if you’re yet to sign up there, you can get up to $1,000 in bonus bets by clicking here!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Suggs Over 1.5 +140 at bet365
Trae Young Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks are a 7-point home favorite over the Miami Heat tonight, largely because star wing Jimmy Butler has been ruled out. Guard Tyler Herro was already on the bench, which leaves the Heat with a much tighter rotation than is ideal. Butler’s absence likely thrusts Caleb Martin back into the starting lineup.
Despite their injuries, the Heat will still play stingy defense. The Heat are allowing 26.3 assists per game, which ranks 18th, and 8.9 per game to point guards, which ranks 19th. However, Young has gone for double-digit assists against the Heat just five times in his career over 17 starts.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Trae Young under today. You’ll find his assist total set to 9.5 — slightly less than his season average (10.1) but slightly more than his average against the Heat since 2021-22 (8.5). There is a real shot this game devolves into a blowout and the Hawks opt to pull Young early.
The -113 (53.1%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds of -130 (56.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Trae Young Under 9.5 Assists -113 at FanDuel
Kyle Lowry Player Prop
We just talked a little bit about the Heat-Hawks game, but let’s talk a little more about it, shall we? With both Herro and Butler on the sidelines, someone will have to step up, and it should be veteran point guard Kyle Lowry.
Lowry hasn’t done a ton of damage against the Hawks since joining the Heat. He is averaging 11.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.3 assists against them, good for 22.3 PRA. Lowry averages 13.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 7.7 assists without Butler since joining the Heat in 2021, good for 25.9 PRA.
The books are taking action on Lowry’s PRA at 23.5, which feels a bit low given Miami’s injuries and Atlanta’s defensive shortcomings. The Hawks are coughing up the second-fewest points to point guards (19.2) but the third-most assists (9.7).
Lowry has also feasted against Trae Young historically. The veteran point guard is averaging 13.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 8.7 assists against him, good for 27.3 PRA. He isn’t the same player that he was in some of those games, but he should still do enough to cash the over.
You’ll find the best odds for this NBA player prop available via Tipico. Lowry is priced at -115 to go over the 23.5 PRA there but is -149 to do so at Pinnacle, a sharp book. OddsShopper Insider Access users got this at -110 on DraftKings, where it is now -135.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Lowry Over 23.5 PRA -115 at Tipico
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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