Let’s end the weekend on a positive note with three more NBA player props! There are nine games on tap — including a matinee in Los Angeles — there’s plenty of value popping on the betting board. Let’s take a look at props for Chet Holmgren, Deni Avdija and Dorian Finney-Smith.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Chet Holmgren & More
Chet Holmgren Player Prop
Without a doubt, Holmgren has been integral in the upstart success of the Oklahoma City Thunder. While we’ve seen some spikes with his rebounding, Holmgren has enough volatility in lower numbers to consider an under play. The total currently sits at 8.5 due to some games where he struggled to get rebounds. He hit over 8.5 boards in six of his last 10 but hit a recent slump that should continue into tonight.
Holmgren comes off a poor three-rebound game in 29 minutes against the Miami Heat. The Thunder host the Grizzlies tonight in Oklahoma City, and blowout potential is looming with a 15-point spread. Holmgren will face a decent test as the Grizzlies do their best defensive rebounding on the road. Oklahoma City is also one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, despite its success.
Let’s fade Holmgren on the boards tonight against Memphis — primarily because he won’t be on the floor enough to grab nine boards. The Thunder should cruise while scoring in bunches, leaving the offensive glass less of an option for Holmgren.
Thanks to OddsShopper, we get this ticket at +106 at Caesars — well above the true odds of -107. By consistently attacking +EV spots like this, we are able to build a bank roll over time!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 8.5 Rebounds +106 at Caesars
Deni Avdija Prop
This is another double-digit spread as the lowly Wizards are in Miami taking on the Heat. It is a high number for Avdija in the rebounding market as Washington comes off a rare win. As Washington saw a small bump in their play, Avdija was one of a few players to benefit. He’s still averaging just 6.8 boards on the year — well below the 8.5 mark he’s asked to cover tonight. We see volatility where Avdija can perform exceptionally well on the glass in wins yet vanish in blowout losses.
The biggest issue the Wizards face tonight is motivation. Normally, catching Washington on the schedule is either a planned day off for players to sit or a mental block forcing guys to simply show up and go through the motions. That’s the only way Washington can strike on a team, yet Miami comes in losers of two straight to far better teams than the Wizards. Expect both Miami and Washington to regress back to the mean — with the Heat getting a far better performance from Bam Adebayo than on Friday against the Thunder.
OddsShopper’s +EV betting tool loves this play due to an obvious inefficiency in the market. We get a sharp price of +100 at BetMGM that clearly beats the true odds of -115. No other book is offering plus money for this prop, as betting it elsewhere will incur an unnecessary cost. This is part of any +EV process, finding openings in the market to attack to secure long-term profit.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Deni Avdija Under 8.5 Rebounds +100 at Caesars
Dorian Finney-Smith Player Prop
We round out the card with another rebound prop featuring Finney-Smith going up against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Brooklyn is a far worse off squad than its hosts in Cleveland, but injuries have dropped this line down to 7.
Already down Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers won’t have Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus today. Brooklyn is a middle-of-the-road rebounding team but they’ve dipped as of recent, especially on the road. Finney-Smith isn’t in a position to take advantage of Cleveland’s injuries, mainly because rebounding isn’t a weakness for the Cavs.
We end the card with another under play, staying below Finney-Smith 5.5 rebound prop. He’s averaging just over 4.5 boards on the year, mainly due to a strong early start to the season. He’s just above four rebounds per game in each of the past three months and got a little spike in a few games in March. That recency bias pushed this rebound total north of 4.5 to 5.5, which allows for a slight edge on the under play.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dorian Finney-Smith Under 5.5 Rebounds -139 Caesars
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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