I’m not going to lie to you — today’s NBA slate is a bad one, as we’ve got only one game on the card with playoff consequences for both teams. That would be this evening’s battle between the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings, which will go a long way in determining who gets stuck playing in this year’s play-in tournament. I’ve dug up two solid spots to attack on today’s card with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium, so let’s get into my NBA player prop picks for De’Aaron Fox and Deandre Ayton.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for De’Aaron Fox & More
De’Aaron Fox Player Prop
As I was scrolling OddsShopper Premium this morning, I noticed that De’Aaron Fox was trading with positive expected value (+EV) to stay under 3.5 3-pointers versus the New Orleans Pelicans today. I’m eager to fade Fox on this slate because of New Orleans’ impressive defense, but I would rather fade him on the points and assists market, where we can get him to stay under 33.5 for -110 at DraftKings. The market mostly agrees with that line, but Caesars (-119) and FanDuel (-120) are a bit stingier.
The Pelicans have owned the paint since the All-Star Break, which should cause some problems for Fox and the Kings. The Pels rank first in points in the paint allowed per game since the pause (43.7). Likewise, since the break, Fox has come to rely on interior scoring for 11.6 points per game — 44.3% of the 26.2 points he averages per game. Fox has also averaged six assists per game through that span, giving him just 32.2 points and assists per contest since the break.
There is an argument that, with the sixth seed on the line, the Kings could be a bit more aggressive with their workload for Fox. He has played 39-plus minutes in three of his last four games. However, the Kings are back in action tomorrow, and they’ll have to play the Phoenix Suns in another crucial game for seeding purposes. Head coach Mike Brown will have to make some tough decisions tonight as it pertains to player workload.
NBA Player Prop Pick: De’Aaron Fox Under 33.5 Points & Assists -110 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our De’Aaron Fox points and assists live odds page!
Deandre Ayton Player Prop
The Fox is under is my personal top NBA player prop today, so let’s dive into the best bet I saw on OddsShopper Premium this morning next. When betting on NBA player props, I follow a structured routine: I glance at the schedule, the injury report and OddsShopper Premium all before beginning my research. I saw this Deandre Ayton player prop at the top of the board and instantly added it to my betting card.
I like the idea of fading Ayton today in a meaningless game for the Portland Trail Blazers versus the Golden State Warriors. Unlike the Blazers, the Warriors are jockeying for seeding. While a top-six seed is out of the question, everything from the seventh through tenth seed is within Golden State’s range of outcomes. If the Warriors can control this game as they should, don’t expect to see much of Ayton down the stretch. He is already averaging only 19 points, rebounds and assists versus the Dubs this season.
But the model wants action on this prop for market-based, not projection-based reasons. Our +EV betting tools index the odds across the market; adjust for factors like book sharpness and hold; and generate a breakeven price (called “true odds”) that, when exceeded, render a wager a +EV bet. That’s the case with this Deandre Ayton under today — we’re beating the true odds of -111 by buying this bet for -101 at Caesars:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Deandre Ayton Under 37.5 PRA -101 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, see our Deandre Ayton PRA live odds page.
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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