Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Dec. 21

Deandre Ayton Player Prop

The Washington Wizards cannot stop opposing teams in the paint. They’ve been a frequent target of mine this year for that reason. On a per-game basis, Washington allows the second-most points in the paint (59.5) and the most made shots in the restricted area (21.7). This corresponds to the most points per game allowed to centers (28.3).

Ayton isn’t the perfect center to buy against the Wizards — he settles for more shots than he should, and he isn’t the most efficient interior scorer — but we don’t need him to be to cash the over. His points prop is trading at just 14.5.

The current number is a bit high for Ayton, as he has cleared it just eight times this season and just once with Anfernee Simons in the lineup. However, he went for 15-plus points in his last four starts against Washington and 20-plus in his last three.

Portland is in a favorable spot scheduling-wise. The Trail Blazers last played on Tuesday and won’t play again until Saturday. They didn’t play on Monday, so this isn’t their third game in four days. Ayton is averaging 0.7 more points per game after one full day off.

The Bulls run a slow-paced scheme that will minimize the number of rebound chances Wembanyama gets. The Bulls rank dead last in pace, which offsets their ninth-worst rebound rate and helps them rank 11th in rebounds allowed to centers (14).

Statistics aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Victor Wembanyama under today because of the pricing disparity. The -110 (52.4%) at DraftKings for the under 13.5 is worse than the true odds for this wager of -135 (57.5%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced down at -167 (62.6%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: Victor Wembanyama Under 13.5 Rebounds -110 at DraftKings

Desmond Bane Player Prop

The Memphis Grizzlies will take on the Indiana Pacers tonight. The Pacers are known for their breakneck pace and inability to play defense but that has been a far bigger issue in the paint than on the perimeter. Indiana allows the second-most made shots per game in the restricted area (21.2) but the third-fewest from above the break (8.3).

Although Desmond Bane was taking more interior shots with Ja Morant sidelined, his return will reduce his volume in the paint significantly. Bane averages 4.8 shots taken in the restricted area per game, slightly more than the 4.5 he averaged per game last year — and far more than the 2.7 he averaged in 2021-22. Meanwhile, Bane has taken 7.5 shots from above the break per game this year — 39% of his overall shot attempts.

Bane’s point total sits at a too-high 25.5. He is averaging just 24.4 points per game this year and scored just 21 in Morant’s first game back. Bane averaged 21.3 points per game with Morant last year. Lock in the under 25.5 for odds of -110 at DraftKings — Pinnacle has Bane to stay under the 24.5 priced at -116!