Yesterday’s article did well, but the rest of my NBA picks did not. The article went 2-1, cashing unders for Cam Thomas and RJ Barrett, but we lost our Pascal Siakam ladder. The down night outside of article plays brought my NBA cards to 169-133-7 (+43.9u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Luka Doncic, Anfernee Simons and Tyrese Haliburton. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Tyrese Haliburton & More
Anfernee Simons Player Prop
The Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs will do battle in a fight between likely lottery teams this Thursday. We’re locking in on an over for point guard Anfernee Simons in this spot because of his excellent recent efficiency. Simons, no longer the second option to Damian Lillard, is averaging 27.1 points per game on shooting splits of 46/40/92.
Simons draws a matchup with a bad Spurs defense. San Antonio has allowed the most points per game to point guards on the year (28.3) and through the last seven games (33.2). Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson combined for 44 points in the Spurs’ last game. Luka Doncic tallied 39 in the game before that one. Even Coby White got in on the fun, too, racking up 22 points in San Antonio last week.
Poor perimeter defense is part of the problem for the Spurs, but a good night from the perimeter isn’t necessary for a point guard to have a big day against the Spurs. Sexton and Clarkson shot a combined 2-for-10 from deep. However, they managed to rack up 13 trips to the free-throw line, while Doncic racked up 11 trips of his own. White didn’t get a trip to the charity stripe, but he didn’t need one — 10 conversions from the field were enough.
You’ll find Simons priced at -105 to go over the 27.5 at BetMGM and ESPNBet. Most other books, including DraftKings, are taking action on this one at -120. The juice should be stacked on the over in this spot — Simons has gone over this number in six of his 11 appearances. His season average of 27.1 is suppressed by two outlier nights in which he played less than 30 minutes, one of which was due to an injury. Simons averages 30.1 points per game when playing at least a half-hour, which he should do against a bad Spurs team.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anfernee Simons Over 27.5 Points -105 at BetMGM
Luka Doncic Player Prop
The Dallas Mavericks are on the wrong end of a back-to-back set. They’ll head north for a matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves that should go poorly for star guard Luka Doncic. Although Doncic is averaging a monstrous 35.1 points per game without Kyrie Irving this season — and 37.9 since Irving went down against Portland — this is a brutal spot for him. Doncic is averaging only 28.3 points per game when playing without rest, largely because of inefficient shooting splits (43/40/82). He has played without rest and Irving twice this year, and he scored 26 and 33 points in those games. I can’t stay away from his under tonight — and OddsShopper Premium can’t stay away, either.
Let’s also give some credit to the Minnesota Timberwolves defense. Minnesota ranks first in defensive rating (108.1) and eighth in points allowed in the paint (47.1). Doncic has faced the Rudy Gobert-led Timberwolves three times, recording point totals of 19, 25 and 33.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Luka Doncic under today because of the market inefficiency. The under 38.5 is priced at only -135 (57.5%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -144 (59%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 37.5 priced down at -146 (59.4%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 38.5 Points -135 at DraftKings
Tyrese Haliburton Player Prop
While I believe that Tyrese Haliburton is the real deal, his points prop is far too high in this matchup against the Chicago Bulls. It’s trading at a lofty 26.5 with the under priced at -125 on both DraftKings and ESPNBet. The Bulls may not be good, but they have allowed the fewest points per game to point guards this year (20.1) and the second-fewest over the last 15 games (20.7).
The Bulls aren’t especially great at defense — they rank only 17th in defensive rating — but they are a slow-paced bunch. Chicago ranks 30th in pace both this year and over the last 15 games. That minimizes the chances opposing stars get to rack up points. The Bulls just held Trae Young to 21 points despite him seeing the court for 40 minutes of action. His co-pilot in the backcourt, Dejounte Murray, scored just 17 in 34.
Haliburton has lined up against the Bulls with the Pacers four times — three times last year and once this year. The emerging star recorded point totals of 17, 16, 29 and 19 in those meetings, good for only 20.3 points per game.
Haliburton is averaging only 24.7 points per game this year as well, so, to beat the 26.5, he’d need to have an above-average night against the league’s best unit versus point guards. He has gone over the 26.5 in just nine of his 26 regular-season appearances this year with a median showing of 25. Haliburton is also averaging only 21.4 points per game in December, clearing this number just three times all month.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Under 26.5 Points -125 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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