I love late scratches, don’t you? With Jordan Poole ruled out shortly before tip-off — despite no prior warning about his illness — Kyle Kuzma saw a meaningful usage boost and busted our under. Get ready for another day of nonsense because, well, just look at today’s injury report. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Jaylen Brown, Jaren Jackson Jr. and LeBron James. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In conjunction with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards dipped to 270-258-15 (+30.4u) on the season last night. We’re still netting a 7.2% ROI, which is good, but it could be better. Also, if you haven’t been sold on our market-based betting system yet, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jaylen Brown & More
Jaren Jackson Jr. Player Prop
We’re fading Jaren Jackson Jr. again tonight. Jackson has been my most profitable NBA player prop target this season, as we’re a monstrous 7-1 (+5.4u) when betting on him this year. Most of the time we’ve been hitting his points under, and that’s exactly what we’re doing tonight. Over his last eight games, which he has played without Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane, Jackson just hasn’t been that efficient — he is averaging 24.9 points per game while shooting 41/22/83.
Jackson’s recent struggles make sense — with his high-usage teammates off the floor, opposing defenses can lock in and stifle him. Jackson still has a high ceiling in this role, but he looks like a sharp fade versus the slow-paced and defensively efficient Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. Jackson has never scored more than 25 points against the Cavaliers since joining the NBA. He tallied just 15 in 28 minutes when these teams met last January, at least partially due to foul trouble.
Jackson’s points prop is trading at 25.5. That’s much more efficient than the 32.5 we cashed on Sunday or the 28.5 we cashed on Monday, but it’s still above both his average through the last eight (24.9) and his home average through the last eight (23.3). Jackson’s home-away splits this year point to value here because he scores 1.9 fewer points per game in Memphis than outside of it. Still, we’re rapidly approaching an efficient number, and I’m limiting my wager on this one to three-quarters of a unit.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 25.5 Points -105 at DraftKings
LeBron James Player Prop
The Los Angeles Lakers are listing both Anthony Davis and LeBron James as questionable for tonight’s game against the Boston Celtics. Although both players usually disregard those tags, that hasn’t been a given lately. This is also the third game in four days for L.A. LeBron played the first two contests but Davis got the second one off, so he may step up and let LeBron rest tonight.
But if LeBron suits up, OddsShopper Premium has identified an edge on the 3-pointers market — and the model has a 13.6% ROI with 3-pointer wagers when betting 12 hours before tip (7.3% when betting one hour before tip).
Our NBA betting tools want action on this LeBron James under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 1.5 is priced at only +136 (42.4%) at Caesars — which is worse than the true odds of +129 (43.7%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over under 1.5 for +118 (45.9%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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Even if you don’t buy into our market-based reasoning, it’s not like LeBron was known for his perimeter shooting early in his career. He has added long-distance shots to his bag since joining the NBA, but he isn’t the most effective shooter from 3-point land.
James is converting 39.7% of his looks from deep this year, but that’s probably unsustainable — he converted 32.1% last year and 36% the year before. His average of 2.2 3-pointers per game probably isn’t something he’ll maintain.
NBA Player Prop Pick: LeBron James Under 1.5 3-Pointers +136 at Caesars
Jaylen Brown Player Prop
I’ve saved the best NBA player prop pick for last. We’re buying Jaylen Brown overs tonight against the likely shorthanded Lakers. Over the last seven games, wings have cooked the Lakers. Los Angeles has allowed the most points per game to shooting guards (30.1) and the third-most to small forwards (25.3) through that stretch.
You don’t need to look back far to see the impressive performances the Lakers have coughed up. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey and Jalen Johnson all went for 18-plus on Tuesday. Jalen Green scored 34 on Monday. Andrew Wiggins went for 22 on Saturday. DeMar DeRozan went for 32 on last Thursday.
The Lakers’ combination of inefficient defense and speedy play has allowed opposing wings to go off. L.A. ranks 15th in defensive rating (114.9) and sixth in pace this season (101.5), but through the last 15, L.A. ranks 22nd (118.7) and first (103); through the last seven, L.A. ranks 27th (122.3) and first (104.1). That’s a recipe for disaster against Jaylen Brown.
The Lakers and Celtics are both playing their third game in four days. That means bad things for the L.A. defense, which coughed up 132 points to the slow-paced Bulls the last time this happened, marking a season-high for Chicago despite the game not going into overtime.
Meanwhile, the last time Brown played his third game in four days, he scored 25 points against the Indiana Pacers. But that was on the second leg of a back-to-back — the last time Brown played his third in four after a night off, he dropped 32 against the Houston Rockets. The time before that, he dropped 40 on the Pacers.
Through a five-contest sample, Brown is averaging 30.2 points per game when playing his third in four after a night off, beating the 22.5 all but once. I’m backing him to beat the 22.5 and am laddering him for 25+ (+115 at FanDuel) and 30+ (+310 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 22.5 Points -125 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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