Our 6-0 start to the week came to a brutal end with yesterday’s 0-3 performance. We’re still up on the week for player props, though, and today, Thursday, February 15, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Stephen Curry, Deandre Ayton and Jonathan Kuminga. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +21.4u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Stephen Curry & More
Deandre Ayton Player Prop
Let’s get today’s card started by fading one of my least favorite NBA players, Deandre Ayton. Sure, there’s some bias here — but we’re 6-0 (+4u) on him this season, cashing two ladders to the top and one straight bet. But the bad defenses that Ayton was playing in those games can’t shine a light on the excellent Minnesota Timberwolves defense he’ll play tonight.
Ayton doesn’t have a diverse array of shots he can make. He depends on easy layups and dunks in the paint but isn’t even that efficient — he converts a pedestrian 69.9% of his looks in the paint. Only 45.8 of his looks in the non-restricted paint find their way in the hoop, too. A whopping 76.9% of his shots come in those two zones. That’s a recipe for disaster tonight versus Minnesota.
Minnesota’s defense ranks first in efficiency rating this season (108.6) and second in points allowed in the paint per game (45.6). The unit allows the fourth-fewest made field goals per game in the restricted area (15.2) on the third-lowest conversion rate (62.8%). The unit ranks a less-convincing 16th in field goals allowed in the non-restricted paint (7.6) but ranks fourth in conversion rate allowed (40.5%). With Ayton averaging only 14.2 points per game this year, I’m backing him to stay under the 14.5 for -115 at bet365.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Deandre Ayton Under 14.5 Points -115 at bet365
Jonathan Kuminga Player Prop
The Golden State Warriors may have turned a corner, largely because forward Jonathan Kuminga has blossomed, but now the sportsbooks are starting to overcorrect. OddsShopper Premium and I agree that there’s an edge on the assists market for Jonathan Kuminga today, and our model has an ROI of 5.8% on NBA player prop bets at DraftKings this season when you wager two hours before tip. for more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 20.5 is priced at -115 (53.5%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -124 (55.4%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 19.5 for -120 (54.6%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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Skeptical of our market-based model’s reasoning? Trusting the market to make your picks instead of projections can be frightening at first, but our data reveals it to be a profitable long-term strategy. But if you need another reason — Kuminga has played in nine games without rest, and he is averaging 16.3 points per contest on miserable shooting splits (50/29/79).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Under 20.5 Points -115 at DraftKings
Stephen Curry Player Prop
The Golden State Warriors are playing their second game in two days tonight. While that means bad things for Kuminga’s efficiency, it means great things for Stephen Curry. The superstar guard is averaging a monstrous 34.3 points per game without rest this season, and he now draws a matchup with a Utah Jazz team that can’t stop sharpshooting guards lately.
How bad has Utah been versus guards lately? Over the last 15, the Jazz have allowed the ninth-most points per game to point guards (25.9). They improve slightly to 10th (24.9) over the last seven. However, they have also coughed up the fourth-most 3-pointers (3.6) over the last 15 and the second-most over the last seven (3.9).
In recent games, the Lakers just shot 14-for-31 from deep against them last night. Curry tallied 25 points (but seven 3-pointers) the game before that. With his 30-plus points prop trading at -115 on FanDuel while other books are taking action on the 30.5 or 31.5, you’ve got to pounce on this one fast.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry 30+ Points -115 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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