We wrapped the short week before the All-Star Break at 8-4 on player prop picks, cashing unders for Deandre Ayton and Jonathan Kuminga on Thursday but losing a Stephen Curry over. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks for Tyrese Maxey, Scottie Barnes and Myles Turner. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +21.6u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Tyrese Maxey & More
Tyrese Maxey Player Prop
I haven’t shut up about this meaningful Tyrese Maxey split: the dude cannot shoot without Joel Embiid. His shooting splits plummet from 46/40/89 with Embiid to 43/33/79 without him. Opposing defenses can just lock in against him, making his life incredibly difficult. Sure, his volume also increases, but Maxey is averaging just 25.5 points per game without Embiid versus 25.8 with him.
Philadelphia’s addition of Buddy Hield at the trade deadline will help Maxey out somewhat, as it takes the pressure off him, but that comes with a consequence for shot volume. Maxey is averaging 26.7 points per game with Hield through three contests, going over the 27.5 in two of them, but he also averaged a monstrous 39 minutes per game in that sample. The 76ers have a game tonight and another tomorrow, so that kind of workload may not be in the cards.
Maxey draws a tough matchup versus the New York Knicks. Even without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, New York’s defense is still one of the NBA’s best. The Knicks have allowed the fewest points per game to point guards over the last seven (17.1) and the last 15 (17.7). They have allowed the second-fewest to them on the season (22.1).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 27.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
Scottie Barnes Player Prop
The Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets will do battle of two play-in tournament hopefuls. At 11th and 12th in the Eastern Conference, they arn’t quite there just yet. But despite this brutal matchup, OddsShopper Premium and I agree that there’s an edge on the points market for Scottie Barnes today, and our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
I think there’s an edge on this Barnes under because of his production following the Pascal Siakam deal. Barnes has played 16 games without Siakam and is averaging 19.3 points per tilt. He cleared the 22-point mark in just seven of those 16 games. He now faces a Nets team that has allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to power forwards on the year (22.7) while playing at the eighth-slowest pace (98.4). Barnes scored just 17 in Toronto’s earlier meeting with Brooklyn this year.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Scottie Barnes under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 21.5 is priced at -110 (52.4%) at Hard Rock, which is worse than the true odds of -122 (55%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 21.5 for -137 (57.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Scottie Barnes Under 21.5 Points -110 at Hard Rock
Myles Turner Player Prop
The people love overs, and I love the people. We’ve got a great spot for an over in tonight’s game between the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers. The Pistons are allowing the most blocks per game to centers on the year (3.3) and the sixth-most through the last seven games (3.1). The Pacers are playing their first game since the All-Star Break and won’t have to go again until Sunday.
The splits point to value for big man Myles Turner here. Turner has played four games with four-plus days of rest and is averaging 2.3 blocks per game in those contests. The Pacers are double-digit favorites tonight, and Turner averages 1.8 blocks per game in wins. Frontcourt reserve Jalen Smith is also out, and Turner averages 1.7 blocks per game without him.
But Turner’s recent splits versus Detroit are the most meaningful number here. The Pistons have allowed Turner to block at least two shots in all but one of their last six meetings, a streak that dates back to the 2020-21 campaign. Turner even swatted three-plus shots in four of those contests while averaging 2.4 per game.
Turner is trading at -135 on ESPNBet to go over 1.5 blocks tonight. That’s a great deal, and so his the over 2.5 at +200 at the same book. I added both of those wagers to my card. We are 6-0 (+4.61u) on Myles Turner props this year including ladders.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Myles Turner Over 1.5 Blocks -135 at ESPN Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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