Yesterday saw us score a 3-0 sweep, cashing unders for Nikola Jokic, Scottie Barnes and Coby White (despite double-overtime, no less!). Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Stephen Curry, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Brook Lopez. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +20.8 on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Stephen Curry & More
Bogdan Bogdanovic Player Prop
This spot is a huge one for Bogdan Bogdanovic. No Trae Young means we can trust him to be the starter at shooting guard, and no minutes alongside both Young and Dejounte Murray means we can trust him to take plenty of shots from above the break as opposed to the corner. Bogey is lethal from the corner, sure, but we care more about his production from above the break due to Brooklyn’s defense.
Bogdanovic has a chance to catch the Nets with their pants down. They’re allowing the eighth-most points per game to shooting guards this year (23.2) and are coughing up the fifth-most 3’s (3.6). But over the last 15 games, the Nets have coughed up the most points per game to the position (27.9) to go with the most 3’s (4.4). The last seven games have been even worse — they still rank last in both metrics (31.2; 5.4) but by wider margins.
But let’s circle back to above-the-break 3’s for a second. This season, the Nets have allowed the fourth-most of them (10.1) on the sixth-highest conversion rate (37.1%). Over the last seven, they have allowed the seventh-most (10) on the fifth-highest conversion rate (40%). With Bogdanovic scoring 17.9 points per game without Young this season — with both a low and median showing of exactly 17 points — the over 17.5 is a two-unit play for me today. It certainly helps that he dropped 20 on Brooklyn despite coming off the bench earlier this season.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 Points -105 at DraftKings
Brook Lopez Player Prop
Brook Lopez and the Milwaukee Bucks have a light road trip versus the Charlotte Hornets on the schedule tonight. They’ll then head back to the Midwest for a date with the Chicago Bulls tomorrow. In a game that could get out of hand early, I like this under for Lopez, as does OddsShopper Premium. Our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Brook Lopez under today due to an obvious market inefficiency. The under 5.5 rebounds will cost you -131 (56.7%) at Caesars, which is a better number than the true odds of -143 (58.8%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 5.5 for -166 (62.4%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can access all our NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! If you’re skeptical of their profitability, check out our NBA player prop results or testimonials from readers like you below!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brook Lopez Under 5.5 Rebounds -131 at Caesars
Stephen Curry Player Prop
The Golden State Warriors and Stephen Curry have light work ahead of them tonight. They’ll face the New York Knicks, who have already ruled out both OG Anunoby and Julius Randle. Even Jalen Brunson is on the injury report — he is questionable due to a neck issue. The Warriors will remain on the east coast tomorrow for a game versus the Toronto Raptors.
The books don’t expect the Dubs to rout the Knicks — they’re only trading as a 4.5-point favorite — but if Brunson is downgraded to out, a blowout could be in the cards, and that would necessarily limit Curry’s minutes on the front end of a back-to-back set.
Still, we’re not relying on Golden State to win in a blowout with this ticket — we’re also fading a Knicks defense that has looked increasingly beatable by bigs and wings, helping Curry’s bigger teammates score more at his expense.
Over the last 15 games, the Knicks have allowed the fourth-most points to power forwards and the ninth-most to small forwards. The Knicks’ struggles stem from poor corner defense, where they allowed the eighth-most made field goals per game over that sample, along with poor interior defense, as they coughed up the 12th-most in the restricted area. Teams are starting to pick up on these trends: over the last seven, New York allowed the second-most made field goals in the restricted area and the 10th-most from the corner (on a 44.7% conversion rate!).
So where do those trends leave Stephen Curry? Well, over the last 15, the Knicks have still allowed the second-fewest points per game to point guards (19.9). They only rank 13th-best over the last seven (21.7), but because Curry rarely shoots in the restricted area (2.2 attempts per game) and isn’t a high-volume corner guy (1.1 attempts per game) as he largely relies on above-the-break 3’s (10.9 attempts per game), I’m fading him in expectation of his teammates doing most of the offensive damage.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry Under 27.5 Points -120 at Hard Rock
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
