Let’s go! Yesterday’s article went a perfect 3-0, and we even climbed a Miles Bridges ladder to +700, netting those who tailed a healthy profit. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Jamal Murray, Damian Lillard and Mikal Bridges. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards jumped to 284-276-16 (+29.3u) on the season last night, largely thanks to Bridges’ big night. I’ve also got a moneyline parlay out for tonight’s action you can find in my breakdown of today’s NBA odds. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jamal Murray & More
Jamal Murray Player Prop
The Denver Nuggets will look to continue their six-game winning streak over the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. They’ll be on the road for this one, but that hasn’t stopped Jamal Murray from putting together big games. Murray’s average jumps from 20.4 at home to 21.8 on the road. While that average is a bit inflated by some big games, including a 35-piece at Boston and a 31-piece at Indiana, this is another big spot where Murray should step up.
The Lakers have struggled to contend in the Western Conference this year, largely because of their defense, and they’re playing at a breakneck pace. Los Angeles ranks 14th in defensive rating (114.6) and sixth in pace this year (101.4). More importantly, the team ranks 19th in defensive rating (117.7) and second in pace (103.6) over the last seven games.
Aside from Los Angeles’ fast pace, a few other factors point to value on Murray’s over tonight. He takes the types of shots the Lakers struggle most against and converts them efficiently. Murray leads the Nuggets in mid-range shots attempted (4.4) and made (2.1). He ranks second in above-the-break shots attempted (5.3) but leads the team in makes (2.3). Meanwhile, the Lakers have allowed the second-most mid-range shots (5.7) and the third-most above-the-break shots (11.4) per game over the last seven. They have allowed the 10th-most (4.5) and most (10.7) this season.
I’m backing Murray to clear the 23.5, a bet you’ll find trading at odds of -115 on bet365. We’re not stopping there, though — Murray could easily go for a 30-piece, which he has done only five times this regular season but did in three of Denver’s four playoff games versus Los Angeles last year. I laddered him to 35+ (+700 at FanDuel) through 30+ (+250 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jamal Murray Over 23.5 Points -115 at bet365
Mikal Bridges Player Prop
The Cleveland Cavaliers, fresh off a win over the Washington Wizards, will visit the Brooklyn Nets tonight. The Cavs have been taking things carefully with their returning starters, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, but Garland played on the second leg of their most recent back-to-back, and I’m optimistic about Cleveland’s chances. OddsShopper Premium has identified an edge on the 3-pointers market for Mikal Bridges. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Mikal Bridges under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 3.5 is priced at only -135 (57.5%) at bet365— which is worse than the true odds of -146 (59.4%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over under 3.5 for -168 (62.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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The more +EV bets you place per day, the better! But if you need another reason to buy the under, Bridges hasn’t made four 3-pointers versus Cleveland, let alone four, since joining the Nets.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Mikal Bridges Under 3.5 3-Pointers -135 at bet365
Damian Lillard Player Prop
There is a chance this one will void, as Damian Lillard is questionable, and, you know, it’s the trade deadline. Things can be weird today. I’m not saying Lillard gets dealt, but if the Bucks make enough moves, they could keep him on the sidelines in hopes of having him ready for tomorrow’s game against the Charlotte Hornets.
But if Lillard does start this one, backing him to stay under 26.5 points should prove quite sharp. Lillard has beaten that number in only 21 of his 47 appearances (44.7%) while averaging 24.9 points per game. Lillard has gone over this number in only five of his 17 games since the beginning of the New Year as well.
Ultimately, it’s Minnesota’s stingy defense that sells me on this pick. Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to point guards this year (23.8) and the fifth-fewest over the last 15 (21.5). Lillard, who generates 8.4 (33.7%) of his points from above the break, now takes on a defense that leads the NBA in shots allowed per game from that zone this season (8.1).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Damian Lillard Under 26.5 Points -108 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
