We went 1-2 on article plays last night, cashing a Stephen Curry under with ease but failing to get our Brandon Ingram over or our Fred VanVleet under. My full cards are now at 203-191-10 (+24.5u) as our skid continues. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kristaps Porzingis & More
Kristaps Porzingis Player Prop
The Boston Celtics just beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in overtime last night. The win forced Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday to all play 40-plus minutes. Al Horford even had to play 38. The Celtics wisely gave Kristaps Porzingis the night off, so he’ll enter Thursday’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks much fresher than his teammates.
I suspect Horford — and possibly another key cog in Boston’s rotation — to sit out on Thursday. Horford has sat for one leg of each of Boston’s back-to-backs so far this year. The personnel limitations should free up plenty of minutes for Porzingis. In Porzingis’ last two games without Horford, he scored 24 points in 29 minutes versus the Kings and 19 points in 27 versus the Jazz, both of which were blowouts.
Thursday’s game isn’t expected to be a blowout. The Celtics are a 4.5-point dog, so they may need to lean on Porzingis in this spot. That’s great for the veteran big man because of his shot profile. Milwaukee is allowing the sixth-most points in the paint over the last 15 games (56.8) to go with the second-most points allowed to centers (28.1) and the most 3-pointers (1.6). Porzingis dropped 21 points in 27 minutes against the Bucks earlier in the year.
I’m backing Porzingis to go over the 20.5 for -120 at FanDuel and am laddering him to 25 (+180 at FanDuel). This should be a smash spot for Boston’s big-name offseason acquisition despite his recent injury woes. Porzingis is averaging 19.8 points per game this year with a median showing of 20.5. He has eclipsed the 21-point threshold in 13 of his 27 appearances. With Boston likely pressed for depth, look for Porzingis to step up.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 20.5 Points -120 at FanDuel
Kyrie Irving Player Prop
The New York Knicks will face the Dallas Mavericks tonight, and I’m getting some exposure to a Kyrie Irving under in this spot. The Mavericks won’t have Luka Doncic, and while that will boost Irving’s minutes and usage, his points, rebounds and assists (PRA) prop of 43.5 is a bit high. Irving tallied 20 PRA in his first game without Doncic. He then tallied 38 in his second game without him. The Knicks are also a much tougher defensive matchup than they had been in the past with the addition of OG Anunoby — they lead the NBA in defensive rating over the last five (100.2).
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Kyrie Irving under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 43.5 is priced at only +105 (48.8%) at DraftKings — which is worse than the true odds of -109 (52.2%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 43.5 priced down at -122 (55%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyrie Irving Under 43.5 PRA +105 at DraftKings
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder just beat the Miami Heat last night. The Thunder were able to manage their personnel well, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played only 34 minutes. That should free him up for a normal workload against the Portland Trail Blazers tonight, who are coming into this one after a full day of rest.
The Trail Blazers haven’t been good this season, but they have excelled at generating turnovers from opposing point guards. Portland leads the NBA in turnovers forced from point guards per game (3.9). They rank third over the last 15 games (3.5) as well. Overall, Portland ranks second — only to OKC — in turnovers forced per game (15.5).
Gilgeous-Alexander has been exceptional this season, but I’m playing him to go over 2.5 turnovers at odds of +102 via Caesars. SGA is averaging only two turnovers per game this year, but that ticks up to 2.8 when he plays without rest. He is also averaging 3.4 turnovers per game against Portland dating back to last year, surpassing this number in each of his last four games versus them.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 2.5 Turnovers +102 at Caesars
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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