This column finally went undefeated again last night, scoring a 2-0-1 sweep after Giannis Antetokounmpo was a late scratch. My full NBA cards are now sitting at 223-215-12 (+22.1u) on the season. Things have been shakier lately than when we were up 45 units a few weeks ago, but some egregious bounces went against us, so I’m optimistic our trajectory will positively regress soon. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Immanuel Quickley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luke Kennard. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & More
Immanuel Quickley Player Prop
We faded Scottie Barnes last night and it worked out. Tonight we’re fading his teammate, Immanuel Quickley. Quickley has been electric for Toronto since getting dealt there in late December, but for all his success, he is still averaging only 18.7 points per game, going over today’s total (20.5) four times in nine games, twice by the hook.
The Raptors are now playing with a condensed rotation with Pascal Siakam shipped off to Indiana. The assets they got in return, including Bruce Brown, are unlikely to play this evening. But even without Siakam on Wednesday, Quickley tallied only 17 points on 38/50/100. He was often content to pass out, racking up nine assists in his 30 minutes of floor time.
One reason to fade Quickley tonight is his poor performance without rest. This season, Quickley has played in the wrong end of a back-to-back seven times. He is averaging only 12.6 points per game in those contests on shooting splits of 38/17/87. Although Quickley did clear the 20.5 in his lone start without rest for the Raptors, he now draws a tough matchup with the slow-paced Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls rank 30th in pace on the season (96.8) and 24th through the last 15 games (96.8). Their defense hasn’t been spectacular, as they rank 15th (114.6) and 12th (115) through those spans, respectively, but it’s been good enough to minimize scoring at that pace. The Bulls have allowed the fewest points per game to point guards this year (22).
Quickley’s points prop sits at 20.5 at every major sportsbook, but you’ll find the under priced at -120 only on bet365. The same wager will cost you -140 at Pinnacle. I’ll gladly take that edge and hope for another shaky shooting night from Quickley on the wrong end of a back-to-back.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Immanuel Quickley Under 20.5 Points -120 at bet365
Luke Kennard Player Prop
The Memphis Grizzlies are cooked. They’ve lost Ja Morant for the season, Marcus Smart for multiple weeks and now Desmond Bane also for multiple weeks. The developments have thrust Luke Kennard into a starting role at shooting guard, and with tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves in store, I’m fading him on the assist markets. OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
Since taking over a starting role five games ago, Kennard is averaging exactly four assists per game, staying under this number in two of those contests. But with the Timberwolves ranked first in defensive rating on the year (108.6) and third over the last seven (107.8), this matchup is a tough one. The Wolves have even allowed the second-fewest assists to twos this year (4.2) and the fewest over the last seven (3.3).
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Luke Kennard under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 3.5 is priced at only +110 (47.6%) at Fanatics — which is worse than the true odds of +102 (49.5%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 3.5 priced down at -112 (52.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Luke Kennard Under 3.5 Assists +110 at Fanatics
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the red-hot Utah Jazz tonight. If you haven’t been paying attention, Utah has gone 12-3 over the last 15 games, rocketing to ninth in the Western Conference. Utah’s successes stem largely from turnovers: they rank 18th in turnovers forced per game (13.4) and first in points off turnovers (18.9) through that span.
Utah’s poor ranking in overall turnovers forced per game over the last 15 stems from their concentration on two positions: point guard and center. The Jazz rank third in turnovers forced from point guards (3.6) and second from centers (3.5). With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing point and leading the Thunder with 72.8 touches and 44.2 passes made per game, the Jazz could strip him often tonight.
SGA has been good at limiting turnovers this season, as he is averaging only 1.9 of them per game, but that rate jumps to 2.4 when he plays on the road. He has coughed up the ball at least three times in eight of his 19 road starts (42.1%), which gets us right to the implied odds of this line at bet365. I’m locking this one in for enough to profit a full unit.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 2.5 Turnovers +135 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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