Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Thursday, January 18

Immanuel Quickley Player Prop

We faded Scottie Barnes last night and it worked out. Tonight we’re fading his teammate, Immanuel Quickley. Quickley has been electric for Toronto since getting dealt there in late December, but for all his success, he is still averaging only 18.7 points per game, going over today’s total (20.5) four times in nine games, twice by the hook.

The Raptors are now playing with a condensed rotation with Pascal Siakam shipped off to Indiana. The assets they got in return, including Bruce Brown, are unlikely to play this evening. But even without Siakam on Wednesday, Quickley tallied only 17 points on 38/50/100. He was often content to pass out, racking up nine assists in his 30 minutes of floor time.

One reason to fade Quickley tonight is his poor performance without rest. This season, Quickley has played in the wrong end of a back-to-back seven times. He is averaging only 12.6 points per game in those contests on shooting splits of 38/17/87. Although Quickley did clear the 20.5 in his lone start without rest for the Raptors, he now draws a tough matchup with the slow-paced Chicago Bulls.

Since taking over a starting role five games ago, Kennard is averaging exactly four assists per game, staying under this number in two of those contests. But with the Timberwolves ranked first in defensive rating on the year (108.6) and third over the last seven (107.8), this matchup is a tough one. The Wolves have even allowed the second-fewest assists to twos this year (4.2) and the fewest over the last seven (3.3).

Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Luke Kennard under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 3.5 is priced at only +110 (47.6%) at Fanatics — which is worse than the true odds of +102 (49.5%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 3.5 priced down at -112 (52.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop

The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the red-hot Utah Jazz tonight. If you haven’t been paying attention, Utah has gone 12-3 over the last 15 games, rocketing to ninth in the Western Conference. Utah’s successes stem largely from turnovers: they rank 18th in turnovers forced per game (13.4) and first in points off turnovers (18.9) through that span.

Utah’s poor ranking in overall turnovers forced per game over the last 15 stems from their concentration on two positions: point guard and center. The Jazz rank third in turnovers forced from point guards (3.6) and second from centers (3.5). With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing point and leading the Thunder with 72.8 touches and 44.2 passes made per game, the Jazz could strip him often tonight.

SGA has been good at limiting turnovers this season, as he is averaging only 1.9 of them per game, but that rate jumps to 2.4 when he plays on the road. He has coughed up the ball at least three times in eight of his 19 road starts (42.1%), which gets us right to the implied odds of this line at bet365. I’m locking this one in for enough to profit a full unit.