Wednesday was rough. Sure, this article went 2-1, but the player I had the most confidence in, LaMelo Ball, scored 17 points of the 28 we needed on terrible shooting splits (29/13/100), missing multiple open 3-pointers and layups before eventually fouling out. Because of some non-article picks you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards ticked down to 246-232-12 (+28u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Jalen Brunson, Bam Adebayo and Jamal Murray. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jamal Murray & More
Jalen Brunson Player Prop
The New York Knicks were lucky to get Jalen Brunson, a talented, high-volume scorer. However, Brunson is a sharp fade tonight, especially with his points prop trading at a lofty 28.5 at DraftKings. Brunson has stayed under 29 points in 24 of his 42 appearances (57%) and 10 of 18 home games (55.6%). His median performance of 25 also points to value relative to this number.
Brunson draws a matchup with the slow-paced Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver ranks 28th in pace this year (97.7) and 27th over the last seven games (96.4). Their defense isn’t perfect, but it’s good enough — Denver ranks 12th in defensive rating on the year (113.4) and 16th through the last seven (116.1).
Point guards have struggled against the Nuggets, especially lately. Denver has allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to the position on the year (23.5), the second-fewest through the last 15 (21.8) and the fifth-fewest through the last seven (20.1).
The last opposing starter at the one to reach the 29-point threshold against Denver was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on December 29, but the Nuggets were on the wrong end of a back-to-back for that one.
Again, with Brunson’s points prop trading at a bloated 28.5, the under stands out as a sharp play. I locked this one in for -110 at DraftKings and suspect it won’t be available there at that price for much longer. I also bought Brunson to stay under the 26.5 — a number he has stayed under in 23 of his 42 games (54.8%) — for +125 at DraftKings.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 28.5 Points -110 at DraftKings
Bam Adebayo Player Prop
The Miami Heat will play the Boston Celtics one night after losing to the shorthanded Memphis Grizzlies. The Terry Rozier deal didn’t seem to give them the offensive spark they were hoping it would — at least immediately. With the Heat coming off no rest, it’s a good idea to fade Bam Adebayo, whose minutes could dip after he just played 40 against the Grizzlies, especially if the Celtics get out to an early lead. I’m fading him on the glass tonight, and OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
The Celtics are a solid rebounding team, too. Boston ranks fourth in rebound rate on the year (51.6%). The team also ranks third in rebounds allowed per game to centers (13.2). Adebayo has played 40 combined regular-season and playoff games versus Boston, and he cleared the 11-rebound mark 11 times (27.5%). Since last season, Adebayo is averaging 8.6 rebounds per regular-season game versus Boston, clearing the 11 once in five tries.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Bam Adebayo under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 10.5 is priced at only +102 (49.8%) at Caesars — which is worse than the true odds of -110 (52.4%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 10.5 for -130 (56.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 10.5 Rebounds +102 at Caesars
Jamal Murray Player Prop
I have bet on a lot of Jamal Murray unders this year. We’re 4-3 on them (not counting reverse ladders) and have won our last three. I think we can keep the momentum rolling tonight by fading Murray in the points column yet again. His standard points prop is now up to 25.5, which he will struggle to clear against the slow-paced and defensively efficient New York Knicks.
I strongly suspect OG Anunoby will spend a decent amount of time covering Murray, which won’t go well for Denver. In one of Anunoby’s final games for the Raptors, Murray was his primary assignment. Murray has never scored 26 points or more when playing against Anunoby over a nine-game sample. Over their last three matchups (dating back to last March), Murray averaged 19.3 points per game with a high of 24.
Anunoby often switched or covered big men for the Raptors, but Tom Thibodeau has used him against high-powered guards. Anunoby served as the primary defender against Tyrese Maxey a few weeks ago and held him to five points in his seven-plus minutes of coverage.
Murray’s points prop (25.5) is just too high for a matchup against the Knicks. New York ranks 27th in pace this year (98.1) and 20th through the last 15 games (98.2). Defensively, the Knicks rank seventh this year (112.5) and second through the last 15 (108.6). They are also sixth in points allowed to point guards this year (23.5) and ninth through the last 15 (23.5). Murray is averaging 21.3 points per game and has stayed under the 26-point mark in 25 of 31 games (80.6%). I also teased this one down to 22.5 for +135 at DraftKings because he has stayed under that number in 20 of 31 (64.5%).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jamal Murray Under 25.5 Points -125 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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